Prime Picks: UFC 312 ‘Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship stretches the term “pay-per-view”-worthy with its upcoming tentpole card in Australia. While the two title tilts generate plenty of interest, things become dire looking down the remainder of the lineup. The cards that get slept on tend to overdeliver, and what fight fans can expect is a number of surprisingly close betting lines: three narrower than -135 and only one above -500 currently. Join the UFC 312 edition of Prime Picks as we collectively spit-take at the co-headliner’s line while sifting through the prelims for some other decent options.

STRAIGHT-UP CASH

Dricus Du Plessis Wins in Over 2.5 Rounds (-125)

The specific moneyline on Du Plessis to defend his throne against the man he won it against is just a smidge out of the Prime Picks preferred price range, as the South African hovers around -205 to -210 to get it done again. Sean Strickland may have earned another title shot, officially, with one win but had to survive judge Dave Tirelli apparently watching a different fight to get his hand raised. Beating a shopworn Paulo Costa who has not prevailed at middleweight since 2019 is hardly a confidence-boosting outcome, especially when compared to “DDP” face cranking Israel Adesanya in August. When it comes to the actual fight specifics, Strickland remains the exact same fighter he was at the beginning of 2024, so it just comes down to whether he can snake charm Du Plessis a little better this time around.

Fans, media and other pro fighters, including some of his past opponents, marvel at how Du Plessis is able to succeed given his style when the cage door closes. Unafraid of taking two to land one, with unorthodox movement and unexpected attacks from out of nowhere, he’s likely one of the toughest active fighters in the sport to game plan against. Robert Whittaker publicly admired at how Du Plessis seemed simultaneously way out of position while also punching him in the face at the same time, and that sentiment is shared by many. When it comes to the betting line, combining the expected winner with an appropriate over brings it into reasonable territory—one even safer with the over at 1.5 rounds of -175 as a more conservative option. While Strickland’s only two stoppage losses came in the opening frame, this over leaves the possibility of Du Plessis either getting a finish in the later rounds like he did against Adesanya and Darren Till or scoring another decision.

STRAIGHT-UP PASS

Tatiana Suarez (-120)

Somebody make this make sense. The pound-for-pound Top 3 female fighter, the post-Joanna Jedrzejczyk strawweight boogeywoman who earned that distinction by beating JJ on two separate thrilling occasions, is currently the betting underdog in the co-headliner. You heard that correctly. Champion Weili Zhang is plus money to Suarez, an underdog to a chronically injured, frustratingly inactive 10-0 opponent who has not set foot in the cage in nearly 18 months. If that alone does not sway the uncertain bettor, just wait, there’s more.

Suarez will come into this pairing as unquestionably the superior wrestler, but that will likely remain her only path to victory. Even if she gets to open up on the feet thanks to the threat of a looming takedown, she has not displayed the striking skills to keep up with a whirling dervish like Zhang. While a few well-placed takedowns allowed Rose Namajunas to skirt past Zhang, one tends to forget that the Chinese star displayed plenty of success on the mat, as well.

Even if Suarez is a wizard when she finds herself in top position, what happens if she gets swept and finds herself unable to get up off her back? Does she have the ability to come back from adversity if she gets her bell rung and finds herself in disadvantageous position? What happens when the 15-minute mark elapses? Even though it was almost six years ago at this point, albeit just three fights ago for the challenger, she noticeably ran out of steam two rounds into her clash with Nina Nunes. Too many very legitimate questions loom to have any confidence in Suarez as a betting favorite, as she will have to do something that has only been achieved once—by a woman in “Thug Rose” who was just as effective on the feet. Age is nearly equal between the two, but on paper, Suarez may have less tread on the tires given her injury history and career before joining MMA.

’DOG WILL HUNT

Bruna Brasil (+340)

Once again, prognosticators find themselves staring at a betting line that defies description. Ahead of UFC Fight Night 248 in November, Cong Wang checked in with a comically undeserved -1300 favored status and went to sleep courtesy of the unsung Gabriella Fernandes. With no big win to suggest Wang is on the right track for a big rebound, it is remarkable bettors have such confidence in the prospect from China that she is -500 on some international sportsbooks. There are a few differences in Fernandes and Brasil, namely that the latter’s chin has been checked on a few occasions and she faces a power puncher in Wang. With that said, this disparity is undeserved, and the Fighting Nerds product in Brasil is undoubtedly a worthy upset contender.

Even if Wang looked decent in the first five-minute stretch against Fernandes, that alone is not enough to suggest she will blaze past this Brazilian. Her striking looked fluid and she landed cleanly on a variety of targets, but no one concussive blow shook Fernandes. Instead, Wang’s confidence was her downfall, as she thought she could walk through anything “Gabi” threw at her and ultimately had her lights turned out as a result. Even if Brasil may not be able to perfectly replicate that strategy, she worked Molly McCann over for three rough rounds thanks to her pinpoint accuracy and a trio of super effective takedowns. Mix this together, and one has a recipe for the big favorite going down in flames one more time.

AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION

Du Plessis-Strickland Lasts Over 1.5 Rounds (-700)

Tallison Teixeira-Justin Tafa Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-450)

Tom Nolan-Viacheslav Borshchev Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-225)

Total Odds: +102

To get a parlay value right around even money with three options that all seem fairly likely, we opted to double-dip on the main attraction. Little more needs to be said about the two, with few moments in their initial tilt making it seem like a rematch would result in an early stoppage. Du Plessis does not generally wipe out foes early at the highest level of the sport, and Strickland has earned one stoppage since 2020. Ride this one as the anchor to any accumulator you may seek.

Inexperienced heavyweights with matching 100% finish rates find themselves slotted high on the main card, with the promotion expecting that smelling salts will be required before long. The height disparity is a great one, so it will be the question of whether Tafa loses a little sting punching up or Teixeira decides to keep far enough away to punt the local man. Given that the fight going out of the first round would mean two spent forces, lean on the safe under here to tie things together.

With Nolan and Borshchev both posting eight wins on their respective ledgers, their shared method of victory is the knockout. There are no submissions on either man’s resume, and that likely will remain the case. Australia’s Nolan would like nothing more than to send this Team Alpha Male-trained fighter home with a loss and some lumps on his face, and the likelihood of these lightweights standing in the pocket and trading hellacious leather is high. “Big Train” learned last year that his jaw is not made of the same material of a train, and Borshchev relishes a brawl where he could just as easily be on the losing end. The winner is not nearly as significant as the two ending things early; of all three legs on this parlay, this one is the most likely to stall out, but it is still violent enough to put down some hard-earned cash.