Preview: UFC 304 ‘Edwards vs. Muhammad 2’

Middleweights

Christian Leroy Duncan (10-1, 3-1 UFC) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (15-5, 6-2 UFC)

ODDS: Duncan (-130), Rodrigues (+110)

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This card gets a late injection of violence thanks to Rodrigues stepping in on short notice for what should be an excellent fight. “Robocop” became must-watch entertainment almost immediately upon hitting the UFC roster in 2021, though there was some regret that he didn’t seem to be maximizing his considerable gifts. Rodrigues has a decorated grappling background, but you wouldn’t know it for most of his career thanks to his tendency to march down opponents and hunt for the knockout. Rodrigues usually does a solid job of mixing defense with offense, but that aggression usually meant that he’d walk into a knockout every few fights, leading to some calls for the Brazilian to pivot back to what brought him to the dance and become a much more effective fighter. It looks like that lesson eventually stuck for Rodrigues after his knockout loss to Brunno Ferreira in early 2023. Rodrigues is no less violent but now mixes in his wrestling and grappling, and as a result, he’s an absolute terror. After running through Denis Tiuliulin and Brad Tavares over the last year, Rodrigues was slated to fight in Denver two weeks ago but found himself without an opponent. When Duncan suddenly needed an opponent, as well, Rodrigues took the open spot. Given that Rodrigues has made his name as a hardcore favorite and Duncan is much more of a flashier and high-profile prospect, it’s a bit amusing to see them wind up in what’s essentially the same place at the moment.

England’s Duncan had a long amateur career before turning professional in 2020, at which point he became known for his highlight reel, owing to a flashy striking style. After winning his UFC debut in 2023 due to injury, a loss to Armen Petrosyan laid bare some of the gaps and inefficiencies in Duncan’s approach. He has made a similar transition to Rodrigues, fighting more as a bully and finding success with a surprisingly strong clinch and ground game against Tiuliulin and Claudio Ribeiro. This is essentially a coinflip, pitting Rodrigues’ technical acumen against Duncan’s physicality and seeming durability edge, but this is also one of those fights that’s all about the violence, as these two should quickly get after it and try to bully one another into submission. The pick is Rodrigues via decision.

Jump To »
Edwards vs. Muhammad
Aspinall vs. Blaydes
Green vs. Pimblett
Duncan vs. Rodrigues
Allen vs. Chikadze
The Prelims