Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Holohan vs. Smolka’

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Lightweights

Steven Ray (18-5, 2-0 UFC) vs Mickael Lebout (14-4-1, 1-1 UFC): Scotland’s Ray is not a polished fighter, with uninspired shot selection and no real idea of how to set up his attacks. What he lacks in technique and experience, however, he makes up for in sheer talent. Ray has a natural sense of distance and more than enough power to do something with it. Though susceptible to submissions on the mat, his ground striking is devastating. Lebout seems to lack all of the natural grace that makes Ray such a promising prospect, but he makes up for it with craft. Working off a nice jab, Lebout uses footwork to circle his opponents, never committing so much to his strikes that he leaves himself open for a takedown. He lacks Ray’s power, of course, but he throws more than enough volume to outpoint an overly patient foe and has a knack for grabbing submissions in transitions on the ground. I expect Ray’s power and confidence to win the day, but Lebout is not to be counted out entirely. The pick is Ray by unanimous decision.

Women’s Strawweights

Aisling Daly (15-6, 1-1 UFC) vs Ericka Almeida (7-1, 0-1 UFC): If we look back at both of these women’s last fights, we can learn everything we need to know about this matchup. Daly may have dropped a lopsided decision to top prospect Randa Markos, but in doing so, she proved her durability, her craftiness and her mental fortitude. Meanwhile, in Almeida’s unsuccessful effort against Julianna de Lima Carneiro, she proved she may very well be unprepared for this level of MMA competition. On the upside, Almeida showed a natural straight right; she also, however, revealed a worrying tendency to jump guard and work from her back for long periods. Daly is essentially the premier journeywoman in the UFC’s women’s strawweight division, and her experience, work rate and well-roundedness will be too tough a test for the novice Almeida. Daly by unanimous decision is the pick.

Middleweights

Scott Askham (13-1, 1-1 UFC) vs Krzysztof Jotko (15-1, 2-1 UFC): At 6-foot-3, Askham is among the tallest middleweights in the UFC. A striker by trade, Askham does not always make good use of his lengthy frame to maintain distance, but he does make excellent use of that height to hurt opponents on the way in -- as demonstrated by the uppercut with which he knocked out Antonio Dos Santos Jr. in his last fight or the front kick with which he very nearly knocked out Magnus Cedenblad the fight before. Jotko has the diversity to give Askham problems everywhere, with a particular advantage in the clinch, where his workmanlike wrestling might poke a few holes in Askham’s thin takedown defense. The key to this bout, however, lies in the knockout rates. Askham’s 57 percent is not incredible, but it certainly speaks to levels of power and accuracy that put Jotko’s 25 percent to shame. Expect Jotko to come out with lots of aggression and volume that fades down the stretch, as Askham lands precise, hurtful kicks. The pick is Askham by unanimous decision.

Welterweights

Cathal Pendred (17-3-1, 4-1 UFC) vs Tom Breese (8-0, 1-0 UFC): Pendred has often been the butt of jokes for his slow movements and grinding style. After coming back from an ungodly beating to win his UFC debut, he turned in a trio of unconvincing and/or unsatisfying decision wins, followed by a loss to the crafty but notoriously inconsistent John Howard. All of this underlines the real problem with Pendred’s game: He is a fighter without a system. Whenever Pendred’s massive frame is not enough to overwhelm his opponent, his utter lack of process becomes glaringly obvious. His usual selection of disconnected, awkward single strikes and telegraphed takedown attempts pales in comparison to Breese. Contrary to Pendred, he strings together attacks like a natural mixed martial artist. Pendred is durable and big, but Breese’s fluid grappling and fundamentally sound striking should be a tough matchup. The pick is Breese by unanimous decision.

Featherweights

Darren Elkins (18-5, 8-4 UFC) vs Robert Whiteford (12-2, 2-1 UFC): Whiteford used to employ his judo background in the same manner as fellow United Kingdom fighter Norman Parke, as a defensive bulwark for his striking. More recently, however, the Dinky Ninjas product has begun diversifying his approach. He has mellowed out as a striker, relying more on movement and combination striking rather than the brawling that once defined him. Most importantly, Whiteford has improved his phase-shifting. Elkins’ strength -- his wrestling -- may be greater than any one thing in Whiteford’s arsenal, but his recent performances have seen him repeatedly struggle to combine that wrestling with the kickboxing game he has strived so hard to develop. The end result is something like a late-career Josh Koscheck, except without the punching power that made Koscheck such a threat on the feet. The pick is Whiteford by second-round TKO in a slight upset.

Middleweights

Bubba Bush (8-2, 0-0 UFC) vs Garreth McLellan (12-3, 0-1 UFC): Bush was knocked out in a minute in his last fight -- the result was later overturned -- while McLellan lost a grinding decision; however, it is still difficult to imagine McLellan beating Bush. While neither man is an exceptional talent, Bush is a more focused mixed martial artist. He is aggressive and fights to his strengths, which mainly means desperately diving on takedowns. Once engaged, however, Bush has some nice wrestling skills and a dangerous ground game. McLellan has some talent as a clinch fighter, but he is far too tentative to outpoint a swarmer like Bush. Factor in the holey defensive wrestling he showed in his last fight, and you have Bush by submission in round two.

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