Preview: UFC 198 ‘Werdum vs. Miocic’

Editor’s Note: The Alves-Barberena bout has been moved to the main card to replace Anderson Silva-Uriah Hall, which was scratched due to Silva’s withdrawal.

Welterweights

Demian Maia (22-6) vs Matt Brown (20-13): The featured prelim is a bout that seems to favor only two outcomes. Either Maia repeatedly grounds Brown and dominates him on the ground or Brown beats up Maia in the clinch while he looks for the takedown. Brown has worked extensively on his wrestling over the last few years, but Maia is one of the most consistently effective chain wrestlers in the UFC. Time and again his first, second or even third takedown attempt has failed, only to see him finish the next one. The time spent in the clinch pursuing those takedowns will put Maia right in Brown’s wheelhouse. Brown’s clinch striking is as close to authentic muay Thai as you will find in the UFC. His arsenal of elbows and knees is complemented by a phenomenal understanding of distance and leverage. When Brown fought Johny Hendricks, however, he struggled to counter-wrestle as he looked for clinch strikes, and I expect the same thing to happen here. Only this time Brown will be faced with a much better submission grappler, capable of either smothering him for three rounds or submitting him in an instant. As long as Maia’s stamina issues do not come back to haunt him, this fight is his to lose. Maia by unanimous decision is the pick.

Welterweights

Warlley Alves (10-0) vs Bryan Barberena (11-3): Shortly after his upset victory over Sage Northcutt, Barberena now finds himself faced with a superior version of “Super Sage” -- kind of. Like Northcutt, Alves is an explosive athlete with a knack for fighting in transitions, catching his opponents in the tiny moments and spaces in between adjustments. Barberena, a strong and durable clinch fighter, was able to thwart Northcutt by absorbing his best shots early, countering him as the fight wore on and capitalizing on the young fighter’s inexperience. Unlike Northcutt, however, Alves is an excellent grappler who complements his transitional instincts with excellent pressure passing and submissions; and whereas Barberena taught Northcutt a few things about energy conservation and patience, Alves already learned that lesson in his razor-thin fight with Alan Jouban. Though Alves’ striking is still more instinct than technique, his entire game is complete enough to keep Barberena at bay. With that said, “Bam Bam” is certain to give the young fighter a tough third round. Alves wins by unanimous decision.

Middleweights

Thiago Santos (12-3) vs Nate Marquardt (34-15-2): These two fighters have repeatedly exceeded expectations. Santos seemed to have little more than an explosive kicking game after he was submitted in under a minute in his UFC debut, but he has steadily added depth to his skill set since. His boxing remains somewhat stiff, but his wrestling and overall transitional fighting have improved by leaps and bounds. Marquardt, on the other hand, seemed primed for another stoppage loss when he knocked out C.B. Dollaway, proving that, despite his age and the punishment of a 17-year fight career, he still has the power and skill to surprise an unwary opponent. Marquardt has never been an exceptional defensive fighter, and his preferred striking range will put him right in the sweet spot for Santos’ devastating kicks. Provided Santos does not come lurching into the pocket hungry for a counter right, he should be able to set up Marquardt for a shin to the jaw. The pick is Santos by TKO in the second round.

Bantamweights

John Lineker (26-7) vs Rob Font (12-1): Lineker has earned a reputation as an exciting action fighter, but Font belongs in the discussion, too, as he has won both of his UFC bouts by knockout. Lineker’s style is more aggressive than Font’s, based on powerful combination punching and forward movement. Lineker is a vicious body puncher who takes whatever openings his opponent gives him. He tends to stalk his quarry, the speed of his hands not matched by that of his feet. Font, on the other hand, is light on his feet and uses lateral movement to frustrate and confuse his opponent. Font’s approach is also more varied: He throws a variety of kicks in addition to combinations of awkward, looping punches and uses both of these to disguise well-timed takedowns. Lineker could very well overwhelm Font by drawing him into a brawl, but Font is usually a disciplined fighter. Expect Font’s movement, variety and volume to frustrate Lineker, who does not cut off the cage well enough to keep up. The pick is Font by unanimous decision.

Light Heavyweights

Patrick Cummins (8-3) vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (21-7): Five years ago, I might have confidently picked Nogueira with ease in this matchup. He has always been the sharper boxer of the two Nogueiras and complements his jiu-jitsu with surprisingly effective wrestling. It was not so long ago that Nogueira completely shut down Rashad Evans’ wrestling with a jab and some well-timed sprawls. Nogueira is 39 years old now, however, and has fought only three times in the last three years, spending much of his time nursing a litany of injuries. Cummins is no spring chicken at 35, but Nogueira has been fighting for more than twice as long. Cummins does a good job mixing together his boxing and his wrestling, and he still possesses the youthful speed and explosiveness that Nogueira lost some years ago. Cummins is not a perfect fighter, and if Nogueira can stop his takedowns, he could certainly outbox him; however, I do not see that happening. The pick is Cummins by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Francisco Trinaldo (19-4) vs Yancy Medeiros (12-3): A few months shy of his 38th birthday, Trinaldo is an unlikely contender in the deepest division in MMA and yet the man called “Massaranduba” is riding a phenomenal five-fight winning streak. Nominally a grappler, Trinaldo has become known for the crushing kicks and crosses he fires out of his southpaw stance. As far as grappling is concerned, Trinaldo is more grinder than submission wizard, with a fondness for short elbows and knees in the clinch and on the ground. Medeiros is a striker, as well, and a crafty one at that. Operating behind a pawing, flicking jab, Medeiros loves to throw sneaky uppercuts and counter hooks. His problems have been largely defensive, as the long-bodied Hawaiian has twice been hurt and finished by body shots. Trinaldo can and has done damage with body blows, and he should be able to find the opening here, though Medeiros remains dangerous with his awkward combinations and opportunistic submission attempts. The pick is Trinaldo by first-round TKO.

Welterweights

Sergio Moraes (10-2) vs Luan Chagas (14-1): Moraes was originally scheduled to face Kamaru Usman, and that would have been a bad night for the Brazilian vet. Moraes has been too busy indulging his fondness for overhands and spinning kicks to develop any real striking fundamentals, and he remains a one-dimensional submission grappler. Now that Usman has withdrawn with an injury, however, Moraes can count on experience and submission skills to carry him to victory. Chagas has a phenomenal record from the Brazilian regional circuit, with all 14 wins coming by finish, all but five of them in the first round. Despite this success, his game is in serious need of polish. Chagas is a capable kicker and a dangerous grappler, but his wrestling and boxing are clumsy at best. He tends to make up for his defensive and technical deficiencies with aggression, but Moraes is too experienced to be cowed. Expect the jiu-jitsu world champ to do his thing in Brazil. Moraes by second-round submission is the pick.

Featherweights

Renato Carneiro (9-0) vs Zubaira Tukhugov (18-3): An otherwise interesting matchup between two excellent prospects could end up being an ugly, slow-paced affair. Both Tukhugov and “Moicano” Carneiro like to wait for their opponent to lead before attacking with a counter. Of the two, Carneiro is the higher-volume striker and more likely to take the lead if necessary, while Tukhugov does a lot of waiting for the perfect shot. While volume often wins fights, Tukhugov may gain the upper hand simply by forcing his opponent to fight in an unfamiliar fashion. Tukhugov throws every shot at full power, whether a right hand, left hook or liver-squishing back kick. Carneiro is perhaps more technical and has a potent submission game to fall back on, but Tukhugov’s takedown defense has been stellar so far. Ring rust may also play a key role, as Carneiro has not stepped foot in the Octagon since his UFC debut in December 2014, while Tukhugov cinched a win over Phillipe Nover less than six months ago. The pick is Tukhugov by unanimous decision.