This is a well-matched fight, as these two middleweights continue
to hum along with an impressive level of success while also feeling
like they are at risk of hitting a plateau. At least in Allen’s
case, it seems like he is trying to change things up in the middle
of some frustrating growing pains. For his first few years, “All
In” had a style that was much more successful than it figured to be
on paper. Allen’s game was entirely built around messy aggression
in the hopes that he could either outlast his opponent or find a
fight-ending defensive opening. A submission win over Kevin
Holland continued to age well as Allen racked up wins, but his
lack of defense eventually cost him against Sean
Strickland in 2020. Allen has attempted to be more mindful
since. He has won four of his past five bouts—Chris
Curtis clearly outclassed him, but victories over Punahele
Soriano and Sam Alvey
showed the improvements Allen had made as a striker. Still, his
most recent victory over Jacob
Malkoun was a bit frustrating. Faced with a less athletic
wrestler, Allen gave up too much control time, only to win by
causing more damage on the feet. An earlier version of Allen would
have had much less difficulty swamping such an opponent, so there
is the worry that he may have lost something as he evolves as a
fighter, even if he will wind up being much more complete by the
end of this process. At any rate, Allen looks for his third
straight win against Jotko, who feels much more settled in as a
fighter on the fringes of the UFC’s middleweight rankings. A
five-fight winning streak from 2014 to 2016 saw Poland’s Jotko
march up the division while showing some well-rounded skills, but
three straight losses to David
Branch, Uriah Hall
and Brad
Tavares clearly halted that momentum. While Jotko has rebounded
to win five of his last six bouts, it is hard to pick out a
particularly inspiring performance among the bunch. Jotko has
become much more of a neutralizing fighter who is content to press
any minor advantages while shutting out his opponents. That could
happen in this pairing, but this is a fight where Allen’s
improvements should actually serve him well. Jotko is typically a
stout defensive wrestler, and his slow pace makes for enough of a
blank slate that Allen should have free reign to work through any
issues and put together a strong striking performance. The pick is
Allen via decision.
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