Preview: UFC 207 ‘Nunes vs. Rousey’

Welterweights

Dong Hyun Kim (21-3-1) vs. Tarec Saffiedine (16-5)

THE MATCHUP: There are two ways Kim knows how to fight. He can whittle away the time, pot-shotting with kicks from long range until he sees an opportunity to clinch, where he will chain together trips and sweeps until he has his opponent flattened out on the ground. The other method is crazier by far and typically involves Kim balling up his fists and swinging like a madman until somebody falls down. The latter could overwhelm Saffiedine, who prefers to avoid a firefight at all costs, but it could also allow the Belgian to evade and pick apart a rapidly tiring Kim from the outside.

The former method would be safer, but kickboxing with Saffiedine is rarely a good idea. “The Sponge” earned his nickname for his ability to quickly employ new techniques, and he strikes like a man with several arsenals at his disposal. Injuries may have unfortunately sapped Saffiedine’s potential -- he is just 1-2 in his last three bouts -- but this will be the Belgian’s third fight of 2016, which suggests he is both healthy and eager to get back on the winning track. Should Kim play with Saffiedine on the feet, he will discover a fighter who not only throws a crisp jab and a beautiful leg kick but does so equally well from either stance. Saffiedine’s footwork should enable him to outmaneuver and outpoint Kim at range.

Saffiedine is a capable defensive wrestler. In fact, it would be fair to say that he is quite difficult to take down. Though Rick Story never got him down, however, Saffiedine was far too willing to fight with his back to the fence. He found himself neutralized by Story’s pressure, as he was constantly trapped in the clinch with the bigger, stronger man. The same could happen here. Kim does not pressure as well as Story and he is easier to hit and easier to hurt, but he is a phenomenal clinch fighter with a layered array of takedowns.

Once on the ground, Kim could very well remind Saffiedine of his fight with Tyron Woodley. Kim is rarely a huge submission threat from top position, and even his wildest Mongolian Chops rarely do fight-ending damage. However, his is a smothering type of top control, the kind only possessed by truly great grapplers like Demian Maia and Gunnar Nelson.

THE ODDS: Kim (-143), Saffiedine (+123)

THE PICK: Essentially, this fight boils down to two likely outcomes. Either Kim smothers Saffiedine, or Saffiedine gives Kim some long-distance knee surgery. Kim’s path to victory is perhaps more forgiving: There are a number of ways, even ugly ones, in which he could get Saffiedine against the fence and on the ground, and once there, the former Strikeforce champion is unlikely to escape. Every round begins on the feet, however, and there is a huge gulf in striking skill between these two, with Saffiedine coming out on top. I predict that Kim will have some success but that he will absorb too much damage in the process as he attempts repeatedly to bulrush his way into the clinch. The pick is Saffiedine by unanimous decision.

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