Preview: UFC 187 ‘Johnson vs. Cormier’

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HEAVYWEIGHTS

Travis Browne (17-2-1, 8-2-1 UFC) vs. Andrei Arlovski (23-10, 12-4 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Former kingpin Arlovski’s rise back to the top of the UFC’s heavyweight division has been one of the more unlikely stories of the past year, and he gets a great chance to continue his improbable run against Browne. Since returning to the UFC, Arlovski has beaten Brendan Schaub and knocked out Antonio Silva, while Browne rebounded from a lopsided loss to Fabricio Werdum by pulverizing Schaub. The winner should have a claim on a top opponent in his next outing.

Arlovski’s once-elite skills are still more or less present despite his long tenure in the sport. He remains a plus athlete with outstanding hand speed, and his striking repertoire is still potent. He works behind a crisp jab and then whirls a hard right hand, which he often doubles up, as he did with the punch that knocked out “Bigfoot” Silva. His timing on the counter is excellent, and he places his shots beautifully around and through his opponent’s guard.

Arlovski takes good angles, moves well in space and mixes in the occasional kick at range. The problem is his defense, which is no better than average, coupled with his longstanding difficulty in absorbing damage. His chin is not exactly glass, but any landed strike on the mark could be the one that ends the fight. In addition to his preferred striking game, Arlovski is also suffocating in the clinch, defends takedowns beautifully and can work well from top position, although it rarely happens these days.

Browne’s game is in the midst of a transformation, as he moved from Jackson-Wink MMA in Albuquerque, N.M., to the tutelage of Edmond Tarverdyan at the Glendale Fighting Club. The rangy 6-foot-7 heavyweight once relied heavily on a steady diet of round and front kicks at range, backed up with the occasional 1-2, hook or overhand. He kicks less these days and focuses more on counterpunching, which suits his crushing power, excellent timing and hand speed. It does reduce his output and volume, however, which could be a concern. Takedown defense is a real strength of Browne’s game, and when he braces himself against the fence and snags an underhook, he excels at driving elbows and hammerfists into the side of his opponent’s head. Browne’s work in the clinch has drastically improved, and his length gives him tremendous leverage for the double-collar tie. On the mat, Browne passes neatly, maintains a heavy base and has ruthless force in his ground strikes. The entirety of Browne’s game is made more effective by his athleticism. He is shockingly light on his feet for such a big man and explodes into his movements with surprising speed.

BETTING ODDS: Browne (-440), Arlovski (+350)

THE PICK: Those odds seem too wide. Browne is hardly a defensive mastermind, and Arlovski is a much more polished and skilled striker, particularly at boxing range. Nevertheless, the basic dynamic of the fight is Browne’s crushing power and Arlovski’s suspect chin. I expect the Belarusian to be ahead on the scorecards when it happens, but the pick is Browne by knockout in the first round.

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