Preview: UFC Paris ‘Imavov vs. Borralho’

Light Heavyweights

Modestas Bukauskas (18-6) vs. Paul Craig (17-9-1, 1 NC)

Odds: Bukauskas (-350); Craig (+280)

This fight is frankly an odd choice for third from the top. Neither fighter is French nor has any particular geographic or cultural connection to the event, and while Bukauskas’ second UFC run has been a pleasant surprise, Craig managed to foul his way into keeping his job back in June. However, if this ends up being the violent mismatch it appears to be on paper, then it is at least a suitable stand-in for the unranked heavyweight slobber-knocker that usually graces Fight Night main cards.

Bukauskas’ 6-4 UFC record seems pedestrian but it is worth noting that his is the story of two very different Octagon runs. After washing out of the promotion on a three-fight losing streak a few years ago, he went back to Cage Warriors, won back his light heavyweight belt there, and since getting the call back to the UFC, he has gone 5-1 this time around.

Part of that stunning improvement is down to more appropriate matchmaking—getting rising contender Khalil Rountree in his last fight in 2021 was particularly brutal—but “The Baltic Gladiator” has definitely improved as well. It has been a case of refining rather than reinventing his game. He has always been a tall, long-limbed kickboxer who needs room to work and hates being crowded, but used to lack the footwork and physical strength to keep aggressive opponents away.

Since his return, he has been more diligent about using lateral movement to avoid being walked into the cage, and more confident in his ability to use underhooks and horsepower to shuck off foes who try to clinch with him. The results have been positive, as he has been hurting his opponents on the feet, finishing most of them, and even had success against Ion Cutelaba, the kind of ultra-aggressive bully who would have been an absolute nightmare for Bukauskas four years ago.

Still just 31 in a division where that is not even close to old, Bukauskas’ best days may still lay ahead of him. The same cannot be said for Craig, whose wild and wooly UFC run appears to be grinding down.

That run has been, in my opinion at least, a joy. As an old-school (OK, just plain old) MMA head with a soft spot for old-school specialists, I find it delightful that “The Bearjew” has not only stuck around the UFC for going on a decade, but actually spent much of that time in the rankings. That isn’t supposed to be possible in this era of kids training MMA (as opposed to karate or jiu-jitsu) and turning into well-rounded professionals, but there it is.

In terms of skills, Craig is a grappler. To be specific, he is a submission specialist, and to be even more specific, he is an expert at triangles and armbars from guard. Since he is a slow athlete, a poor striker and not much of an offensive wrestler, but very durable, Craig has always been dependent on his opponents to provide his best routes to victory, either by making a tactical blunder or wearing themselves out so badly kicking his ass that he takes over late.

It shouldn’t work, but it has, and not just against the dregs of light heavyweight. Craig currently sits at .500 in the UFC, and has never been much above that, yet he owns two stoppage wins over current or former divisional champs.

At 37, the fun is coming to an end, however. Craig had lost five of six fights headed into his tilt with Roberto Bellato in June, including his last three, and if his illegal upkick had not resulted in a no contest, he would probably be in Cage Warriors right now, trying to win Bukauskas’ old belt.

Craig has always been susceptible to being overwhelmed by hard-hitting opponents who jumped on him early and didn’t give him any chances to get his tricky game going, but everything seems to hurt him now. Even when he isn’t knocked all the way out, he just spends too much time rocked and flailing, even against average hitters.

That spells disaster against Bukauskas, a technical striker with average (and improving) power, who suddenly seems very unlikely to fall victim to Craig’s slow level changes or guard pulling. Whether this is a long night or a short night for Craig will hinge on just how hard he wants to run into Bukauskas’ fists. Considering he must know his job is probably on the line here, the guess is “pretty hard,” and the pick is Bukauskas by TKO early in Round 2.



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Imavov vs. Borralho
St. Denis vs. Ruffy
Bukauskas vs. Craig
Oki vs. Jones
McKee vs. Sola
Freire vs. Keita
The Prelims