Preview: UFC 198 ‘Werdum vs. Miocic’

Catchweight

Cristiane Justino (15-1) vs Leslie Smith (8-6-1)

THE MATCHUP: “Cyborg” finally comes to the UFC, but Ronda Rousey is sitting on the sidelines after losing her title in devastating fashion, with no return date in sight. That means we get “Cyborg” vs. Smith instead of “Cyborg” vs. Rousey.

Leslie Smith is above all else game. Even if you have never seen her fight, that should come as no surprise, seeing as she accepted a bout with the feared Invicta Fighting Championships featherweight titleholder in the first place. Smith is not only willing to face tough opponents, though. She is willing to throw down with them. When searching for the perfect word to describe Smith’s style, “scrapper” quickly comes to mind.

However, scrapping with Justino is a risky proposition. Smith’s fondness for awkward, lunging combinations of punches and kicks will almost certainly leave her open to the crushing power of Justino, who owns a foreboding 87 percent knockout ratio. It has been nearly eight years since one of her opponents heard the final bell and over a decade since her first and only loss.

“Cyborg” is a muay Thai stylist of the old school Chute Boxe ilk. More keen to throw hands than lead with punches, she has gained considerable craft and skill over the past three or four years. The current version of “Cyborg” mixes straight punches with crushing hooks and throws vicious knees and elbows in the clinch, often using the threat of these attacks to set up a variety of twisting body lock takedowns.

Smith may very well choose to tone down her approach in order to accommodate Justino’s threats. Though still aggressive, she made notable adjustments to her style in preparation for the wrestling of Rin Nakai, adopting a low stance to ward off takedowns and focusing her attention on upward attacks designed to catch Nakai ducking for a double-leg. This time around, Smith may choose to stick and move a little more than usual, rather than barreling headfirst into the “Cyborg” wheelhouse.

THE ODDS: Justino (-1416), Smith (+847)

THE PICK: Smith is a clever fighter, but even the stoutest game plan will not change the nature of this fight. The reality is that Smith is a bantamweight -- tall but gangly rather than strong. Justino, on the other hand, is a mountain of muscle who can nonetheless fight her chosen pace for five straight rounds. Whether Smith elects to press “Cyborg” or draw her into a chase, she is neither athletic nor technical enough to ward off the inevitable. The pick is Justino by second-round knockout.

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