Preview: UFC Abu Dhabi Prelims

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The Ultimate Fighting Championship’s first trip to the United Arab Emirates this year brings a 12-fight slate—assuming the promotion is unable to find a short-notice replacement for Movsar Evloev in the co-main event—that is very typical of its efforts in the region over the last three or four years. While Abu Dhabi became a crucial partner for the UFC in 2020 as it sought to return to live events during the Covid pandemic, it has remained a frequent landing spot ever since, and the cards have heavily featured fighters who either hail from the Middle East, came up through promotions native to the region such as Brave CF or UAE Warriors, or have difficulty securing visas to fight in North America due to nationality or other factors.

That generalization does not imply that the UFC uses these cards as some kind of dumping ground for misfit fighters, nor that UFC on ABC 9 is the equivalent of “leftovers night” at the house. Abu Dhabi fight nights still have a unique atmosphere that makes them feel different than the UFC’s non-pay per view road dates in the U.S., let alone at the Apex. They provide a platform that fighters such as Kevin Holland and Khamzat Chimaev used to propel themselves from obscurity to stardom five years ago, and high-profile debutants like Marcus “Buchecha” Almeida and Aaron Pico (if not for Evloev’s withdrawal) still seek to follow in their footsteps.

Now on to the preview for the UFC Abu Dhabi prelims:

Bantamweights

Bryce Mitchell (17-3, 8-3 UFC) vs. Said Nurmagomedov (18-4, 7-3 UFC)

Odds: Mitchell (-125); Nurmagomedov (+105)

Mitchell has become that rarest of animals: a UFC fighter with name recognition among casual fans despite never having been a champ or top contender—at least not yet. While the 30-year-old Arkansan has become a polarizing figure over the past few years because of some mind-bogglingly ignorant public statements, it is worth noting that he was well on his way to stardom already. When “Thug Nasty” requested, and received, custom camouflage fight shorts after just one or two UFC bouts, it was reminiscent of when Dana White appeared at a press conference in a “Korean Zombie” t-shirt similarly early in Chan Sung Jung’s career.

Public persona aside, Mitchell seemed to have found his ceiling at featherweight after graduating from Season 27 of “The Ultimate Fighter.” His sensational grappling carried him to six straight wins before graduating to Top 10 opposition, where his limitations have become clear in alternating wins and losses over his last five fights. While his brutal loss to Ilia Topuria is understandable, getting cold-cocked by a 38-year-old Josh Emmett was a bad look, and after being largely overwhelmed by Jean Silva in his most recent outing at UFC 314 in April, he has elected to move down to 135 pounds.

Considering the specific problems that arose for Mitchell at featherweight, the change in weight class may well pay off. Despite looking fairly big for the featherweight division, Mitchell struggled to match the physicality of top fighters there. His wrestling—not very technical, but generally effective—was good enough against lower-level opponents but had him at the mercy of Topuria and Silva, and his defensive lapses on the feet left him open for a perfect shot from an aging, slowing but brick-fisted hitter like Emmett.

That makes Nurmagomedov a very suitable—and interesting—debut opponent at bantamweight. The 33-year-old Dagestani, like Mitchell, went on an impressive win streak but has had mixed results of late. Nurmagomedov is a solid, patient, technical kickboxer, a very good grappler and a decent wrestler, though his wrestling chops tend to be overstated due to his name and training pedigree. Nurmagomedov is at his best in a mid-range striking match where he is able to keep his foes at his preferred range, defending takedown attempts with scrambles off of his excellent front headlock series.

Nurmagomedov’s UFC losses have seen him either struggle with stronger, more athletic foes, as in his fights with Raoni Barcelos and Vinicius Oliveira, or with fighters who wanted the same kind of standup battle and were simply more effective at it, like Jonathan Martinez. Assuming Mitchell’s weight cut goes well, he should enjoy advantages in sheer size and strength against Nurmagomedov, and while Nurmagomedov will be the more complete and polished striker, it seems unlikely he will be able to one-shot him like Emmett did.

Mitchell may not be able to absolutely dominate Nurmagomedov on the ground the way he did most of his early featherweight foes, but he should be able to secure a few takedowns, and in between, crowd the Dagestani and make him uncomfortable enough on the feet to negate some of the deficit in speed. The pick is Mitchell by decision.



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Mitchell vs. Nurmagomedov
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