The Bottom Line: Right Place, Wrong Time

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It wasn’t so long ago that the UFC on Fox 23 main event between Valentina Shevchenko and Julianna Pena would have been of life-altering consequence to both fighters. The contest will determine the No. 1 contender for the women’s bantamweight title, a championship that has been the top-drawing combat sports belt over the past four years. Since the title was created, the 10 events featuring a women’s bantamweight title defense have drawn in the vicinity of 8.375 million buys. Earning yourself a title shot meant the sort of payday that could allow you to live comfortably for years to come.

Unfortunately for Shevchenko and Pena, they have worked themselves into the immediate title mix at precisely the wrong moment. The biggest concern for the strength of the division is the fall of Ronda Rousey, the division’s cash cow. Rousey faces an uncertain future after a pair of demoralizing losses. She is the sort of superstar that comes along once in a blue moon and simply cannot be replaced. However, the problems for the division go deeper than that.

Holly Holm, likely the second biggest star in the division, is on her way to the newly created women’s 145-pound weight class. If she captures the title there, it’s unlikely she’ll return to 135 pounds anytime soon. Miesha Tate, likely the third biggest star, retired. Amanda Nunes is now not only the champion of the division but its biggest attraction, and it’s highly doubtful she’ll be a big difference maker on her own. The women’s bantamweight division needs a shot in the arm, and it’s hard to see who can be that. Shevchenko and Pena are like rival Blockbuster executives who slowly worked their way to the top of the company right as Netflix was taking off.

The hope for Nunes, Shevchenko and Pena is that they can piggyback off Rousey’s popularity to at least some degree. Combat sports have always attempted to create new superstars by matching the rising stars of a new generation against the top drawing cards of the preceding era. This sometimes works well. Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao rose to a higher level by defeating Oscar De La Hoya. Chuck Liddell became a superstar himself in his victories over Tito Ortiz. Wanderlei Silva became a major attraction in Japan with his wins over Kazushi Sakuraba.

These sorts of star-power transfers happen sometimes, but more often than not, the fighter who defeats the superstar can’t capture the superstar’s aura. Cain Velasquez garnered a significant fan following after defeating Brock Lesnar, but he was never able to draw at the same level. Frankie Edgar became a fan favorite among connoisseurs of the sport in defeating B.J. Penn twice, but he was never able to equal Penn’s success on pay-per-view. Many thought Johny Hendricks deserved to win against Georges St. Pierre in St. Pierre’s most recent fight, but it didn’t mean Hendricks was able to pull in St. Pierre’s numbers for his following fights.

In order for Shevchenko or Pena to achieve the heights their predecessors did, somebody in the division is going to need to rise up to a higher level of popularity and notoriety. The most obvious candidate is the current champion: Nunes. There’s a case that can be laid out to suggest that Nunes might be able to carry the division to a relatively high level on her own, as she is not without marketable characteristics.

To begin with, Nunes benefits from having wins over Rousey and Tate at high-profile events. Those wins got her name out to a large audience and are far bigger wins than any of her top challengers possess. She has an entertaining fighting style and a generally affable persona. Her status as the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s first openly lesbian champion with a girlfriend who also competes in the UFC adds a distinctive personal story, as well.

There are significant reasons for doubt, however. The win over Tate came at a UFC 200 event where she had to compete for attention with Lesnar, Velasquez, Daniel Cormier, Anderson Silva and Jose Aldo. Her win over Rousey was presented by most of the media as a story much more about Rousey. When Holm beat Rousey, much of the coverage was about Holm pulling off the win. With Nunes, the focus was squarely on Rousey after the fight. Moreover, Nunes isn’t a big personality and Brazilian fighters often take much longer in the UFC to become attractions than fighters from other countries. Beyond all that, she just doesn’t feel like she has become a superstar, and the last two fights were the ones most likely to make her one.

If Nunes isn’t going to create big pay-per-view returns for Shevchenko and Pena to share in, it’s up to the challengers to generate their own interest. Luckily for them, they have a terrific opportunity on Saturday in Denver. A Fox main event is a big platform, and the weekend between the NFL’s conference championships and the Super Bowl is a good spot for a high-profile fight. It’s the perfect spot for either woman to turn in a memorable performance. Pena with her outspoken personality could capture attention after the fight, as well, if she wins.

Optimism aside, the likelihood is that no matter who wins, Nunes-Shevchenko 2 or Nunes-Pena just won’t have anywhere near the attention of all previous UFC women’s bantamweight title fights. Shevchenko and Pena still have the motivation to fight to prove they are the best in the world, but the 135-pound gravy train has come to an end at precisely the wrong moment for these two title hopefuls.