The Bottom Line: Common Concerns

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When Alistair Overeem and Andrei Arlovski meet in the UFC Fight Night 87 main event this Sunday in Rotterdam, Netherlands, it will be a matchup between perhaps the two fighters in the history of the sport whose fates have been most dictated by their chins. When their chins have held up, they have both risen to the top of the sport and had extended success. When their chins have failed them, they have looked like they could lose to practically anyone with decent striking power.

MMA by its nature is a sport where fate can turn in an instant. Unlike in most sports where mistakes can be overcome over the course of a game, in MMA, one mistake can negate everything else that happened in a mere split second. The knockout is the most violent and sudden reminder of this reality, something that all fighters need to be aware of in their preparation and at all times in the fight.

The threat of being knocked out is something with which all fighters must deal, but that threat is not evenly distributed throughout the sport. Its danger exists most strongly in the heavyweight division, where greater size and power leads to higher knockout rates. From Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Fedor Emelianenko, Mirko Filipovic and Randy Couture to Josh Barnett, Frank Mir, Cain Velasquez, Junior dos Santos and Fabricio Werdum, the greatest heavyweights of all-time all tend to get knocked out sooner or later.

Even in that heavyweight division, Overeem and Arlovski are outliers in just how much their ability to take punishment has affected the ebbs and flows of their careers. From early on in his career, the biggest question about Arlovski was his chin. He had great athleticism and striking ability, but the right punch would put out his lights. When he emerged as a top contender and then won the Ultimate Fighting Championship heavyweight title, it was less because of improvements in his striking and more because of improved striking defense. Still, the danger of the right shot to the chin persisted.

It was that chin that cost Arlovski the UFC heavyweight championship against Tim Sylvia in a fight he appeared to have won. Arlovski was getting the better of the great Emelianenko before the Russian legend produced one of the most visually stunning knockout blows in the history of the sport. With three first-round knockout losses in four fights, from 2009-11, many counted out Arlovski as a significant factor in the sport. I was one of those people. That miscalculation came because we overlooked what made Arlovski successful in the first place. He never had the sturdy chin. He thrived because he was a dynamic offensive fighter who was athletic enough to keep himself out of danger.

If Arlovski had always relied on his speed and then he got slow, it might be an insurmountable obstacle. However, he still had his strengths. He just needed to find a way to play to those strengths while avoiding his big weakness. He focused more on defense, and he rallied. He wasn’t scoring as many quick knockouts but he was picking up victories and was getting close to a title shot. Of course, the chin never disappeared as an issue. When Stipe Miocic knocked him out in under a minute at UFC 195, it was no surprise, even after five years without a knockout loss. The chin’s always the thing with “The Pit Bull.”

Overeem can surely relate. Like the young Arlovski, Overeem was a thrilling offensive fighter for much of his career, but he couldn’t put together long winning streaks because they’d be broken up by knockout losses. When Overeem turned into “Ubereem” and transformed himself from a midlevel Japanese middleweight to an elite heavyweight, focus was principally paid to his enormous gain in muscle mass. That was clearly a significant factor, but another big factor was that he was finishing his opponents so quickly that he didn’t need to survive much damage himself.

When Overeem suffered three losses in four fights, much attention was paid to the transition to the UFC. That may have played a role, but it was largely the same story of his entire career. He got caught with big shots from heavy hitters in Antonio Silva, Travis Browne and Ben Rothwell. Overeem has never dealt well with getting caught by big shots. Still, he retained his own knockout power and striking skill. Thus, it should have been no surprise that he was able to rebound with three consecutive wins heading into this fight.

It has to take a tremendous toll on the psyche of Arlovski and Overeem to know that their margin of error is so low. They’re the fighters with the lowest margin of error in a division with the lowest margin of error in a sport with the lowest margin of error. They work for years improving their craft and building momentum, yet it can easily all come crashing down any second of competition if they aren’t careful enough. It’s what makes the sport so exciting for fans, but it’s a curse for the competitors. It’s hard to blame them for the extremely cautious fight they end up engaged in from time to time.

With the history of Arlovski and Overeem, it would be no surprise to see their fight go either way. It’s an extremely important fight for both, with the next heavyweight title challenger still unclear. A win could set up the next challenger and a loss would be a major step back. Arlovski and Overeem have rarely ever needed their respective chins to hold up more than they do now.