Prime Picks: UFC on ESPN 34 ‘Luque vs. Muhammad 2’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday circles back to its headquarters at the UFC Apex to start a three-week stint under the Las Vegas sun. The first event of the 21-day Sin City stay will post up on ESPN with a fight card more akin to a proving ground than a heavy-hitting UFC Fight Night with big names on the billing. The UFC on ESPN 34 edition of Prime Picks will stick its neck out for a main card favorite, a fight between two female finishers that should still see the final bell, a wrestler who takes the path of least resistance and the return of a talented lightweight after over two years away.

Vicente Luque (BetUS: -175)

The line on Luque winning in the main event of this show has been relatively steady until recent money started sliding in on fight week. As a result, what was a steal of Luque around -150 to -160 has drifted towards what it is now and beyond. There is a caveat with this pick: Should Luque shift to an even heavier favorite above odds around -200, the value diminishes fast. An ever-present danger who can threaten on the feet and around the throat, “The Silent Assassin” rides into this favorable contest on a wave of momentum and a dramatic victory over his upcoming opponent. While Belal Muhammad has been no slouch the last few years—he has gone 10-1 with an unfortunate no contest in his past 12 appearances—this matchup is just as dangerous as before if not more so.

Brazil’s Luque exploded from the pack of “action fighters” at 170 pounds to a true contender over a series of violent wins the last two years. While face-altering damage to Niko Price and Randy Brown resulted in solid victories, statement performances over a Tyron Woodley who was willing to pull the trigger and a Michael Chiesa who was at the top of his game cemented his place in the Top 10 in his division. It is not just his fast hands and stellar volume that put opponents in trouble, as he can fall back on his skills from a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt he earned in September. Never content to coast, Luque will fight hard to the bitter end, and only talented strikers who can dictate the pace and play the matador to his bull have survived him over the past half-decade.

Muhammad, much like his opponent, operates best when he is in the driver’s seat. When pushed back and forced to fight off his back foot, the wheels do not fall off so much as the strategy shifts dramatically. While he is no slouch upright, his best course of action is still typically to drag opponents to the mat any way he can and rough them up on top. A grinding performance would favor him significantly—if he can stay close enough—and allow him to mash Luque up against the wire or drag him to the mat while taking the pop out of his punches. This is a big if, considering the Brazilian’s get-up game has improved by leaps and bounds since Leon Edwards nullified him on the mat for large stretches of each round. While some wrestle-heavy fighters can gain an upper hand by making their adversary think not just about takedowns but the threat of the takedown, Luque is a true opportunist that does not lose focus or despair when the fight hits the canvas. When it comes to an avenue to victory, Luque has far more options than Muhammad, making his play a solid one to end the night.

Mayra Bueno Silva-Yanan Wu Goes to Decision (-165)

With a litany of question marks looming about the co-main event consisting of two middleweight debutants who snagged contracts via Dana White’s Contender Series and a closer-than-anticipated striker’s delight between Miguel Baeza and Andre Fialho, the action shifts to the women’s divisions instead. Both Silva and Wu celebrate exactly one win apiece on the scorecards in their careers with seven and 12 victories, respectively. Despite this seemingly lopsided finish rate for both women, those numbers are notably inflated by early submissions over untested opposition. The only way either woman has won so far inside the Octagon has been by first-round submission, and neither of them has ever tapped out as a pro, so something has to give.

The primary method of victory for both ladies is submission, even if Wu’s record on paper says otherwise. While China’s Wu does celebrate six TKO wins on her ledger, just one came over a woman who had ever prevailed in a pro fight. The submission grappler’s curse strikes both bantamweights in this affair. While they would vastly prefer to bring the fight to the mat, neither can so much as buy a takedown in their UFC careers. This leads to the fight either bringing extended clinch sequences without a successful trip or body lock, or prolonged striking exchanges in a grappler’s kickboxing fight. Both options mean that ample time will tick off the clock without much danger or risk of a stoppage, which makes this pick of the fight going the full 15 minutes worthwhile of consideration.

Devin Clark Wins by Decision (+130)

Clark, at least by what he has displayed over the course of his nearly six years on the roster, is a fighter who chooses position over submission or even ground-and-pound. To those who have followed the Octagon journey of “Brown Bear,” it should come as no surprise that all of his UFC wins have been accompanied by at least one takedown. His accuracy at getting the fight down might not be the highest, but his determination to do so is non-stop. Against William Knight, Clark faces a muscular mountain of a man who can get shut down like the best of them. The X-factor will undoubtedly be that this fight takes place at heavyweight instead of forcing them to cut down to 206 pounds, and that should favor Knight. It also might hurt him, taking away a key piece of discipline to prepare for the match.

As a member of the UFC roster, Clark has yet to record a win by stoppage, with most of his defeats resulting in finishes in the relative early going. Until Ion Cutelaba strapped on his wrestling shoes and took him for a ride in September 2021, the pattern had been that Clark would either win by decision or get finished. Cutelaba came exceedingly close—he smashed his counterpart’s teeth out in the process—as Clark’s corner completely failed him. The clear alternative to this pick is that Knight wins by TKO/KO, which comes at a decent +330 if one expects the burly “Knightmare” to pound Clark out. Otherwise, Clark’s grind-embracing approach is the perfect foil to Knight, who already struggles to pull the trigger at times and might be even more reticent to do so when his opponent bears down on him for a takedown entry.

Drakkar Klose Wins by Decision (+160)

It may not be thrilling to suggest three of four lines that promise the fight will end on the scorecards, or that the last two picks are both the same method of victory, but the value for both is excellent. As it stands, they remain better than trying to parse whether Jesse Ronson or Rafa Garcia will pull off their coinflip contest, or if Chris Barnett can pull another rabbit out of his hat against the powerful Martin Buday. Rather than those riskier options, two known quantities where the books are likely already written will stand across the cage from one another. Beyond Beneil Dariush’s mind-boggling comeback in Klose’s most recent appearance, few can rattle Klose or take him out of his game. Back at the camp where he spent the majority of his career, the MMA Lab, Klose’s bread-and-butter approach will work to his benefit against the high-flying Brandon Jenkins.

A feast-or-famine attacker, “The Human Highlight Reel” is a fitting nickname for the offense-minded Jenkins. Most of his victories on the books are by stoppage, and he can fly through the air or spin with the best of them. This strategy has often worked to his disadvantage, as these kinds of spectacular moves are only good for as long as there is gas left in the tank. When pressured by a wrestle-boxer like Klose, he might not find the space to get off his most powerful blows. The pairing should play right into the Klose’s hands, as he can impose his will early by taking the fight down and tiring out the high-flyer in the opening frame. Even if the first attempt does not put Jenkins down, the second, third and beyond likely will. It might be one-way traffic for Klose, as Jenkins has not displayed much effective offense off his back on the major stage or an ability to get up and stay there for long. Not much of a finisher, the biggest favorite on the card in Klose, at -700, turns to plus money in what should be the most likely outcome in this matchup.

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