Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Rodriguez vs. Caceres’

Welterweights

Court McGee (17-5) vs. Dominique Steele (14-7): McGee and Steele bring to the table two very similar styles of fighting, backed by two very different kinds of athleticism. McGee throws about 15 strikes per minute and shoots for around three takedowns per round. He is neither explosive nor particularly powerful and rarely deviates from a set rhythm, but he pushes a punishing pace and absorbs punishment well. Steele, on the other hand, is built like a tank and fights like one. Though somewhat slow-footed, he can explode into powerful strikes, and he is more than strong enough to make up for any deficiencies in his wrestling technique. Steele is not, however, afraid of the grind. You might even say he embraces it; if you don’t, Mike Goldberg will. Steele has been known to tire, but he has also won plenty of gritty decisions in the past, including a five-rounder for the CES MMA welterweight title. If McGee can really turn up things in the third round, he might win this fight, but Steele’s greatest weakness is his chin, and McGee has not knocked out anyone since Dayle Jarvis in 2009. Steele will throw more power, rack up damage in the clinch and use his bulk to grind McGee against the fence if necessary. The pick is Steele by unanimous decision.

Heavyweights

Viktor Pesta (10-2) vs. Marcin Tybura (13-2): Tybura may have had a sterling regional record coming into his UFC debut, but a rough-and-tumble fight with wrestle-boxer Timothy Johnson did not go his way. Tybura has always gotten by thanks to his tremendous durability and finishing instincts -- both valuable attributes in the heavyweight division -- but Johnson impressed upon him the value of process in the upper echelon of MMA. Pesta lacks Tybura’s special knack for finishes, but he is every bit as durable and just slightly better suited to MMA in the UFC. Pesta is an aggressive grappler, a powerful athlete and a well-schooled fighter. Like Tybura, he lacks technical polish, but he knows how to use the cage to his advantage and how to kill time in dominant positions. Tybura is more dangerous and has the better gas tank, but he is too comfortable being held against the fence and standing around doing nothing to steal the rounds. In an open field with no time limit and no judges, this would be Tybura’s fight to lose. Instead, with only three rounds to work and a punishingly small space in which to do it, it is a fight he will lose. Apply salt as desired, as these are heavyweights, but the pick is Pesta by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

David Teymur (4-1) vs. Jason Novelli (11-1-1): Though he fights out of Sweden’s Allstars Training Center, Teymur’s fighting style smacks of the Tristar Gym. He is technical, a smooth mover and clean puncher who excels at catching and countering kicks. At his UFC debut in February, despite the urging of his corner, he calmly controlled a much taller, more experienced opponent until the finish presented itself. That sort of approach should come in handy against Novelli. The 37-year-old Novelli fights like a less-developed version of Yair Rodriguez, our headliner. He is a strong wrestler, though without Rodriguez’s explosive takedown ability, and a strong kicker, though without Rodriguez’s sublime dynamism. The wrestle-kicker always has a hard time with disciplined pocket boxers, so Novelli will have a hard time with Teymur. The pick is Teymur by unanimous decision.

Featherweights

Teruto Ishihara (8-2-2) vs. Horacio Gutierrez (2-2): Ishihara earned his stripes in a back-and-forth battle with Mizuto Hirota and established himself as a prospect to watch when he knocked out Julian Erosa in his second UFC bout. Now he meets another up-and-comer like himself but one with less relevant experience. As a striker, Gutierrez may in fact be the more technical of the two. He throws vicious leg kicks and puts together his punches in intelligent combinations. He struggles, however, to force the opponent into his fight. Gutierrez tends to wait and counter. Ishihara, on the other hand, is a clever manipulator from long range. Though somewhat reckless, Ishihara sets up his attacks with awkward, broken rhythm, like a less-polished version of countryman Kyoji Horiguchi. Both Ishihara and Gutierrez possess crushing power and both tend to slow down and open up in the later rounds, so absolutely anything could happen here. However, Ishihara’s ability to control the pace of the fight gives him the edge. The pick is Ishihara by second-round knockout.

Featherweights

Cub Swanson (22-7) vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri (35-9-2): Swanson’s career has been one long comeback story, while Kawajiri’s has been the story of a man who never left. There is no greater testament to the efficacy of Kawajiri’s grappling than the fact that he needs it to win. Despite a 16-year MMA career with three kickboxing bouts sprinkled in, Kawajiri has never developed much as a striker, relying instead on his relentless wrestling, smothering top game and sheer physicality. Such a style could be made to work against Swanson, but it would require consistent pressure, of the kind that Frankie Edgar and Max Holloway used to neutralize the California slugger. Given room to work, however, Swanson is one of the most dangerous strikers in MMA. Awkward, unorthodox and wild, Swanson nonetheless possesses a firm grasp of striking fundamentals; and where Kawajiri tends to win rounds by grinding his opponents into dust, Swanson has developed a remarkable ability to create sudden moments of stunning offense that change the course of his fights in an instant. It is a battle of process versus dynamism, except that Kawajiri’s process is incomplete and there is more than a little craft to Swanson’s dynamic offense. Swanson by third-round TKO is the pick.

Heavyweights

Chase Sherman (9-1) vs. Justin Ledet (6-0): Two promising strikers meet in this battle of UFC debutantes. Sherman’s record, like most regional heavyweight records in MMA, tells us little about his future prospects, but he seems well-schooled. Sherman throws straight punches, keeps his hands in a good fundamental position and uses angles to avoid his opponent’s counters. Ledet has a bit more experience, with five professional boxing wins in addition to six MMA victories over a slightly better level of competition. However, Ledet will be badly outsized. A light heavyweight, Ledet’s listed weight sees him at a 50-pound weight disadvantage. While Sherman is not a grappler, the additional weight will likely lend considerably more pop to his shots. Still, Ledet is tighter defensively and more active with his strikes. Should Sherman choose to grapple, it is also worth noting that Ledet has more experience fighting in the cage; Sherman has competed almost exclusively in rings. The pick is Ledet by third-round TKO.