Preview: UFC Fight Night 146 ‘Lewis vs. Dos Santos’

Welterweights

Anthony Rocco Martin (15-4) vs. Sergio Moraes (14-3-1): It took a while, but Martin is finally hitting his stride. For years, Martin was a gigantic lightweight whose fights followed a simple formula. He could overwhelm his opponent for a round or so, but he would quickly burn out and either get finished or make his wins much closer than they needed to be. However, Martin finally decided to move up to 170 pounds in 2018, and the results have been excellent. Martin still has his grappling when he needs it, but the move up to welterweight has coincided with his discovery of a solid striking game that he has used to keep opponents at bay, and one with a bit of power, too. Martin’s latest test comes in the form of Moraes, who has been one of the UFC’s most under-the-radar success stories at welterweight. Since losing in the final of the first season of “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil,” Moraes has won eight of his last 10, supplementing his elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills with an off-kilter striking style that has some surprising knockout power of its own. It is not always pretty, as Moraes’ weird punching angles mostly serve to slow down his opponents, but it has been effective against everyone not named Kamaru Usman. Still, at this point it is hard to pick against how well Martin has looked. His striking fundamentals should be able to pick apart Moraes when he is out of position, and he should have the physical strength to keep the fight standing if the Brazilian looks to grapple as a fallback. The pick is Martin via decision, with a decent shot at a late finish. ODDS: Martin (-185), Moraes (+160)

Women’s Bantamweights

Marion Reneau (9-4-1) vs. Yana Kunitskaya (11-4): This is a necessary fight as the women’s bantamweight continues to take shape. It will be interesting to see how much longer Reneau can compete at a high level, as she was 37 upon her UFC debut and is now creeping up on 42. That is particularly important given that Reneau’s style is mostly based off of her athleticism and her ability to force big moments. If she is not bullying more overmatched opponents, she is busy trying to burst into a submission from her back. That style should make for a bit of a mess against Kunitskaya, who does not seem to have much of a plan beyond pushing forward, pressing for takedowns and seeing what happens. Reneau could easily catch her, but Kunitskaya’s wrestling game looks decent enough to control her; and the Russian should be able to handle whatever part of this fight takes place on the feet. The pick is Kunitskaya via decision. ODDS: Kunitskaya (-155), Reneau (+135)

Featherweights

Grant Dawson (12-1) vs. Julian Erosa (22-6): Jon Jones was the best thing that could have happened to Dawson. After winning a UFC contract on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, Dawson was in contractual limbo after failing a drug test due to the same pulsing issue with which Jones dealt; after Jones was essentially acquitted and allowed to fight, the UFC had no choice but to do the same for Dawson, so after a year and a half of waiting, he finally makes his Octagon debut here. Erosa looks like a fighter built to remain on the UFC fringes. He plies his trade as a slick striker at a level that works when he can out-quick fighters on the regional scene, but against better athletes, Erosa simply is not as fast as he thinks, leading to knockout losses to fighters like Devonte Smith and Teruto Ishihara. Dawson does not fall into that category, as his bread-and-butter skills are his wrestling and submissions, but the newcomer still should be able to press those advantages enough to control the majority of the fight, if not score a finish outright. The pick is Dawson via decision. ODDS: Dawson (-205), Erosa (+165)

Heavyweights

Maurice Greene (6-2) vs. Jeff Hughes (10-1): Greene was probably the most interesting heavyweight on the most recent season of “The Ultimate Fighter.” He showed the most charisma of anyone on the cast, and he cuts an imposing figure as a 6-foot-7 kickboxer. While his tall frame leaves him open for takedowns, he is not quite a hopeless cause on the mat. Yes, his triangle choke submission of Michel Batista in his UFC debut says more about Batista’s own lack of ground skills than anything else, but Greene nevertheless pulled it off. Strangely, he steps in here as a late replacement to take on an organizational newcomer in Hughes -- a man who beat him in April in Greene’s last pre-“Ultimate Fighter” appearance. Hughes does not look the part of a future contender, but he is a tough, well-rounded heavyweight who managed to grind out a win against Greene the first time around and can probably just do the same in the rematch. The pick is Hughes via decision. ODDS: Hughes (-225), Greene (+175)

Bantamweights

Louis Smolka (15-5) vs. Matt Schnell (12-4): Smolka was one of the better comeback stories of 2018. He was a rising flyweight contender before suddenly washing out of the UFC after four straight losses, but he cleaned up his life and earned his way back to the Octagon within a year, returning at bantamweight to tap out Su Mudaerji. Beyond the feel-good vibes, it was a welcome return, as Smolka was also earning a reputation as a fun scrambler and submission artist before things went completely off the rails. Smolka now takes on Schnell, who finally looks to be figuring out things. Schnell was an interesting flyweight talent when the UFC picked him up, possessing knockout power and impressive scrambling skills, but he proved to be shockingly chinny for someone in a lighter weight class. However, he has adapted to a more conservative range striking style that has been much more effective and even earned him a surprising win over top prospect Naoki Inoue in June. That should carry Schnell here. Both fighters are somewhat similar as long strikers who prefer to scramble on the mat, but Schnell is the longer fighter and more willing to dictate the range. Hopefully, this becomes a mad dash of a scramble, but the pick is Schnell via decision. ODDS: Schnell (-135), Smolka (+105)

Welterweights

Alex Morono (15-5) vs. Zak Ottow (17-6): If nothing else, this fight features two diametrically opposite approaches. Morono came to the UFC with a Brazilian jiu-jitsu pedigree, but his style seems more reliant on just winging punches without much of a game plan. It has had a clear ceiling, as Morono tends to get either neutralized or run over upon any step up in competition, but against the lower reaches of the division, he is more than capable of putting on a war. He will take on Ottow, who instead tends to keep things as slow as possible, relying on either his wrestling or a conservative, defensive-oriented striking style to snuff out his foes. Ottow tends to struggle with better athletes, but Morono does not pose that kind of challenge. Between that reality and Morono’s wrestling defense being fairly terrible, Ottow should be able to grind this out. The pick is Ottow via decision. ODDS: Morono (-240), Ottow (+180)

Lightweights

Alex White (12-5) vs. Dan Moret (13-4): Minnesota’s Moret drew about the worst possible matchup for his UFC debut. His game is mostly predicated on rushing forward and trying to chain a takedown into a submission, so he had little to offer Gilbert Burns, a much stronger athlete with an elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu pedigree. The good news here is that he is facing White, who has had some success as a lanky striker but has never shown much of an ability to stop his opponent from taking him down. If Moret cannot win this one, then he probably will not stick on the roster. The pick is Moret via first-round submission. ODDS: White (-205), Moret (+165)