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Welterweights

Alex Oliveira (21-8-1, 2 N/C) vs. Peter Sobotta (17-6-1)
Odds: Oliveira (-165), Sobotta (+145)

Oliveira has been a hard fighter to pin down. The Brazilian "Cowboy" made his UFC debut back in 2015, where he stepped in on late notice to unexpectedly give Gilbert Burns a ton of trouble, surviving on the mat and showing some impressive striking instincts. Oliveira eventually got a successful run going, losing only once in his next nine fights, but even as he moved up the ranks at lightweight and welterweight, it was hard to get a true read on his set of skills; sometimes he was a smothering and aggressive wrestler, sometimes he was a knockout artist and it essentially seemed random as far as what would be working for Oliveira on any particular night. Eventually, things seemingly settled on Oliveira being a physical bully who could do a little bit of everything without much technical depth, and in recent years that approach has hit the point of diminishing returns. Gunnar Nelson was able to out-finesse Oliveira en route to a submission win, but Oliveira's rough 2019 established just how much the Brazilian relies on being a bully nowadays. It may have always been there, or Oliveira's athleticism may be waning as he enters his thirties, but he looked uncomfortable and unable to keep up against Mike Perry and Nicolas Dalby, who -- despite different approaches -- mostly got by on a willingness to keep pressing forward and wear Oliveira out over three rounds. Oliveira at least righted the ship with a win over Max Griffin in March, but Oliveira's gone from future contender to the mire of the mid-card in surprisingly short order. A win here against Sobotta would do a ton towards proving Oliveira is still someone to watch going forward.

It's been a surprisingly successful second UFC run for Germany's Sobotta. Signed as part of the UFC's attempts to break into his home country back in 2009, Sobotta quickly proved himself unready for prime time and washed out of the promotion after three fights. And when they re-signed him in 2014, it looked to be for much the same reasons: the UFC was putting the full-court press on for international expansion, and with Germany back on the schedule and Sobotta still one of the better fighters in the country, it was a natural fit. Sobotta got a few winnable fights to start with, but it was a 2016 triumph over Dalby that proved he would be here to stay; an obvious underdog, Sobotta turned in an aggressive and one-sided performance that not only possibly saved his UFC career, but made him someone to watch the next time out. Sobotta continued to build his momentum with a win over Ben Saunders and a strong showing in a loss to Leon Edwards, but injuries have kept Sobotta out of the cage for over two years at this point. This is an excellent opportunity to make a statement upon his comeback.

This fight is essentially a referendum on where Oliveira's floor is against a certain type of opponent. Sobotta's been successful, but he has a fairly straight-ahead approach, looking to either press forward on the feet or take this to the ground. So it's basically a matter about whether Oliveira's physicality and mentality can keep him in control of the bout over 15 minutes. It's a similar challenge to Oliveira's fight against Dalby, and despite Sobotta's win over the Dane, it's probably an easier test for Oliveira nowadays -- Dalby looks to be physically stronger at this point in time, and Sobotta isn't quite as indestructible as Dalby's been over the course of his career. So there's much more of a chance that Oliveira can either score a knockout blow or overpower Sobotta for a submission to end things early. But at this point, it's hard to trust Oliveira against an opponent who's going to stay in his face for 15 straight minutes. The pick is Sobotta via decision.

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