Preview: UFC on ESPN 10 ‘Eye vs. Calvillo’

Women’s Flyweights

Mariya Agapova (8-1, -160) vs. Hannah Cifers (10-5, +140): This date was initially slated to be the UFC’s debut in Kazakhstan, and it made sense Mariya Agapova would be on the card. While she lost to Tracy Cortez on Dana White’s Contender Series, the appearance put her on the promotion’s radar, and she has since racked up two convincing wins in Invicta Fighting Championships. Agapova is an interesting prospect who has the physical similarities and swagger to draw comparisons to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, but she remains quite raw. While she has shown enough to be able to survive against low-level grapplers, she struggled against a strong wrestler in Cortez. She now takes on late replacement Cifers, who returns two weeks after her loss to Mackenzie Dern and moves up a weight class in the process. Cifers is a good opening test for Agapova; despite her small frame, she has some deceptive strength and could control some wrestling and clinch exchanges. However, Cifers will need to get the fight there first, and that is the difficult part. The American is probably a natural atomweight, and Agapova should have her run of things on the feet. The pick is Agapova via decision.

Lightweights

Kevin Aguilar (17-3, -160) vs. Charles Rosa (12-4, +140): Rosa is another fighter who is taking advantage of this pandemic to get in some fights, as he returns for his second assignment of 2020 just a month after UFC 249. Rosa is a strange fighter, with a mobile striking game built around kicks, some slick submissions and little in between. He can pull off a tricky win like his armbar victory over Manny Bermudez, then get outclassed like he did last month against Bryce Mitchell. Rosa takes on Aguilar, who started his UFC career hot with wins over Rick Glenn and Enrique Barzola but is looking to snap a two-fight losing streak. Aguilar has a simple but effective approach built around countering his opponents on the feet, but Dan Ige had too much technical depth for “The Angel of Death” to handle; and Zubaira Tukhugov’s athleticism and speed was enough to catch Aguilar cold. Rosa is not an outstanding athlete, but his approach should still be able to work here. All those weird kicks should keep him at enough of a range to avoid whatever his opponent throws back, and Aguilar has not shown much of an appetite to take the lead and apply pressure. It will likely be 15 minutes of Rosa frustrating Aguilar rather than a dominant win, but “Boston Strong” by decision is the pick.

Women’s Bantamweights

Julia Avila (7-1, -485) vs. Gina Mazany (6-3, +385): Avila was a solid addition to the UFC’s bantamweight roster in 2019. The “Raging Panda” has a game built around pressure and pathological aggression, which she used to take over her UFC debut against Pannie Kianzad. She does not have much in the way of defense or a Plan B, so she will have to retool her game at some point, but it is unclear if that time has come. Mazany is making her return to the UFC as a late replacement. Hopefully, her second stint goes better than her first; her rugged wrestling game managed to get a win over Yanan Wu in 2017, but otherwise, she was simply out of her depth. It will be interesting to see if Mazany can fight through Avila’s constant pressure. Since Avila is not an overwhelming athlete, Mazany may be able to find some success if she matches the Californian’s aggression and goes after her own takedowns. With that said, Avila showed a strong clinch game against Kianzad, and if this fight is going to be a grind, it is hard not to favor her. If nothing else, Avila has shown a willingness to keep her offense going and cause damage in the clinch, while Mazany tends to focus solely on control. There is a chance at an upset here, but Avila by decision is the pick.

Flyweights

Tyson Nam (18-11-1) vs. Zarrukh Adashev (3-1): When the UFC signed Nam as an injury replacement late in 2019, it was a pleasant surprise. He had gotten on the radar back in 2012 with a knockout of then-Bellator MMA champion Eduardo Dantas but quickly slid back into journeyman status after an unsuccessful run in the World Series of Fighting kicked off a four-fight losing streak. Nevertheless, the Hawaiian rebounded and found his way to the Octagon years later, although he has had a tough go of things lately while being matched against Sergio Pettis and Kai Kara-France. Nam gets a step back here, as he takes on a late replacement and UFC newcomer in Adashev. A former kickboxer who has shown some improvement from fight to fight, Adashev is an interesting prospect, but this is probably a case of too much too soon. While he is a dangerous hitter, he has yet to face someone as tough and experienced as Nam, who should be able to beat Adashev to the punch and return fire more often than not. The pick is Nam via decision.

Featherweights

Jordan Griffin (18-7, -165) vs. Darrick Minner (24-11, +145): It is a bit on the nose to have a rematch of a 2018 Legacy Fighting Alliance clash on a card this thin, but this should still be an exciting scrap. Griffin cannot help but entertain. He is solid everywhere and a good athlete, but he is aggressive to a fault and completely sells out on offense at the expense of any defense. That made for fun losses to Dan Ige and Chas Skelly, but he probably needed his February win over T.J. Brown to save his UFC job. He will take on a fellow Dana White’s Contender Series alum in Minner, who is also entertaining to a fault. Minner basically sells out on trying to score a first-round finish, usually by submission, so his record is dotted with a number of shockingly quick wins and also a bunch of losses whenever fights go a few minutes. He gave Herbert Burns some trouble with his aggressive style DWCS and did the same against Grant Dawson in his UFC debut, but this will probably end the same as those fights, not to mention the first encounter between these two. Minner should be dangerous early, but given that Griffin can survive, the Nebraska native figures to quickly fade. The pick is Griffin via second-round submission.

Welterweights

Anthony Ivy (8-2, -195) vs. Christian Aguilera (13-6, +160): Ivy’s route to his UFC debut is an odd one. Ian Heinisch was briefly pulled from UFC 250 due to concerns over the coronavirus, and in those few hours, the promotion signed Ivy to serve as a late replacement. However, Heinisch was re-inserted into the fight, Ivy was kept under contract and the UFC got him a fight a week later than planned against a fellow newcomer in Aguilera. Ivy is at his best when he can make it a slow-paced grind, and he should be able to do that here. He is the much larger and stronger fighter, and while he is not an overwhelming control artist, defensive grappling does seem to be Aguilera’s weakness. While Aguilera has some dangerous power and should have some moments on the feet—even with a clear size disadvantage—the pick is Ivy via decision.