Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio’

Heavyweights

James Mulheron (11-1) vs Justin Willis (4-1)

THE MATCHUP: Willis may have lucked out when his originally scheduled UFC debut fell through. Willis was supposed to take on established contender Marcin Tybura back at UFC 208. As a relative novice filling in on short notice, Willis may have had no choice but to take a hard loss -- a difficult shortcut to a UFC contract. After failing to make weight for that bout, however, Willis now gets a more forgiving matchup and therefore a better chance of victory in his all-important debut on the big stage. None of this is to say that England’s Mulheron is an easy man to beat. Though Mulheron lacks Tybura’s big wins, he has a respectable record. The vast majority of his opponents had winning records at the time Mulheron faced them, and his ledger includes such names as Neil Grove, Stav Economou and Neil Wain, all veterans of the fight game.

Mulheron is a peculiar fighter. Despite the spare tire he carries around his waist, he is remarkably light on his feet. This likely has something to do with the fact that Mulheron is quite small for a heavyweight. Standing just 5-foot-10, it is possible that a slimmed-down “Juggernaut” could make the middleweight limit. Mulheron uses his agility to quickly get in and out of range. This robs him of some power but allows him to attack openings as soon as they appear. Mulheron used to be quite right-hand-happy, but he has recently developed his jab and has always possessed a sneaky left hook.

Willis is clearly the much bigger man. He stands 6-foot-3, and his broad, powerful frame suits his height perfectly. A product of the American Kickboxing Academy, Willis has a comfort with his hands that only comes from lots of hard sparring. He possesses crunching power and has no fear of letting his hands fly at the first opportunity. Technically, however, Willis still has a lot to learn; and with only five fights on his record, strategic discipline may be his most pressing issue. He tends to go for the finish with gusto, sometimes exhausting himself in the process. Willis was knocked out in the second round of his first pro fight for exactly that reason, and in 2015, he barely scraped by with a two-round majority decision over Rizvan Kuniev.

The big question for Mulheron in this matchup is whether he can stop Willis’ wrestling or survive on the ground long enough to batter his exhausted opponent in the second and third rounds. Here, Willis’ size and strength will be particularly useful. Though his set-ups are rarely sophisticated, Willis will happily use a flurry of punches to either distract or stun his opponent before changing levels and hitting a powerful double-leg takedown. On the ground, he prefers to strike from wrestling positions rather than advancing as a more traditional jiu-jitsu player might. Here, too, his size advantage will be useful, as he will seek to ride Mulheron while working him over with short punches and elbows.

THE ODDS: Willis (-210), Mulheron (+175)

THE PICK: With his squat frame and quick feet, Mulheron will automatically be harder to take down than most heavyweights. He seems to have some solid instincts when it comes to sprawling and angling away from takedown attempts, and his footwork will make it more difficult to force him into the fence, where his desire to create space will be thwarted. All the same, Willis is happy to bum-rush his opponents in the first round, and Mulheron will have a difficult time neutralizing such a tactic without the help of considerable punching power. Expect Willis to drive Mulheron backward before shooting for a takedown. If he fails to complete his early shots or struggles to put away Mulheron on the ground, he may well be in for a world of hurt in the second and third frames. However, size and power matter a great deal, especially at heavyweight. The pick is Willis by first-round TKO.

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