Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Dillashaw vs. Cruz’

Here is where I designate my special picks for this card, for degenerate gamblers and all manner of hardcore fight fans who just cannot seem to squeeze enough fight analysis into the day:

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Legend

BEST VALUE: This fighter’s chances of winning are far greater than the betting lines suggest. Bang for your buck.

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CAN’T MISS: My pick for “Fight of the Night,” though not necessarily the kind of slobberknocker that usually earns that honor. Whether technical masterpiece or mutually assured destruction, this bout should be well worth the price of admission.

LIVE DOG: This fighter should probably be at even odds or better, but for whatever reason, he or she is not. Everyone loves an underdog story, but only when the underdog wins.

SURE THING: The lock. If any fight on this card is predetermined, it is this one. The only question: If he or she was always going to win, does the victor still have free will?

SMOKE BREAK: Don’t smoke, kids, but for those of you who can’t resist lighting up mid-event, it is probably safe to do so during this marvel of matchmaking.

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BEST VALUE: T.J. Dillashaw. As unique a matchup as this is, I cannot really imagine a way in which Dominick Cruz takes more than a round or two from the champion. In order to win, he will need to make his wrestling work, and though Dillashaw has never faced a wrestler of Cruz’s caliber, he has also never been taken down in the UFC. Add in his incredibly high volume, mastery of angles and speed, and Dillashaw starts to seem like a pretty safe bet, with good value at -145.

LIVE DOG: Matt Mitrione. I know, this is the heavyweight division and Mitrione has never sniffed the top five, while Browne is still hanging around at number seven despite his losses to Fabricio Werdum and Andrei Arlovski. Think back to Browne’s big wins, however, and his position in the pecking order starts to feel a little more precipitous. Against Alistair Overeem, he survived a vicious battering and cinched a comeback win. Against Gabriel Gonzaga and Josh Barnett, he was granted an opportunity to smash heads and did so. Given a fast, accurate and powerful striker, on the other hand ... well, it did not work out for him against Arlovski, did it? Mitrione is a little fragile, but I think he is a strong pick to win and he is sitting pretty at +130 right now. Since this is heavyweight, you might consider Mitrione inside the distance at +180, but I like the straight odds best.

SURE THING: Anthony Pettis. A lot of folks had their faith in “Showtime” shaken when he was clobbered by Rafael dos Anjos, but the fact of the matter is, Eddie Alvarez does not do any of the things dos Anjos did then. Alvarez will give Pettis space to work, and he will leave himself open to be hit. It seems like a pretty easy pathway to victory for Pettis. The -345 is not bad for a Pettis win, but you can bet on him to win inside the distance at +110, which is even sweeter.

CAN’T MISS: Ben Saunders vs. Patrick Cote. Yes, I would like to have picked the main event for this slot, but that seems so obvious. If you are out for a pure action fight, then Saunders is your man; and considering Cote’s most recent fight, the Quebecois veteran is still more than willing to throw down given a willing opponent. This one should make for a worthy featured prelim.

SMOKE BREAK: Francimar Barroso vs. Elvis Mutapcic. The newcomer Mutapcic is a welcome addition to the light heavyweight division, but he is not always an action fighter, particularly when he has to grapple. Barroso, on the other hand? Well, let me just say I was compelled to re-watch Barroso’s bout with Ryan Jimmo for research purposes, and I am not exactly chomping at the bit to see the man perform anytime soon. This could be a fun fight, but if you have to miss one, there is a good chance you will not miss much here.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.