Preview: UFC 186 ‘Johnson vs. Horiguchi’

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WELTERWEIGHTS

Patrick Cote (20-9, 7-9 UFC) vs. Joe Riggs (40-15, 5-5 UFC): The preliminary-card main event on Fox Sports 1 is a bit of a throwback, as veterans Cote and Riggs meet in a fight that would not have been out of place on a UFC card more than a decade ago. Cote is the less shopworn of the two, having won three in a row before dropping a decision to Stephen Thompson. He still throws a powerful right hand and is quite durable and does enough of everything else to get by. Riggs, too, is fairly well-rounded, but he increasingly struggles to absorb damage. The pick is Cote by knockout in the first round.

WOMEN’S BANTAMWEIGHTS

Alexis Davis (16-6, 3-1 UFC) vs. Sarah Kaufman (17-2, 1-0 UFC): Canada’s two best women’s bantamweights go to war for the third time in what promises to be an outstanding fight. Kaufman won their two prior matchups, the first by knockout in Davis’ pro debut and the second by razor-thin decision in 2012. Both women are extremely well-rounded, with Davis the better pure grappler and Kaufman the better pure striker; both make up for their relative lack of athleticism with excellent technical skills and a blistering pace. Kaufman works just a bit faster, however, and her takedown defense and strong clinch game should be the difference once again. The pick is Kaufman by close decision.

LIGHTWEIGHTS

Chad Laprise (9-0, 2-0 UFC) vs. Bryan Barberena (10-2, 1-0 UFC): “The Ultimate Fighter Nations” winner Laprise enters his third bout in the UFC against Barbarena, who knocked out Joe Ellenberger in his UFC debut in December. Laprise is a smooth kickboxer, with a clean jab and potent right low kick, but he is also a capable wrestler with some skills on the mat. Barberena is an enormous and powerful lightweight who puts his size and length to best use in the clinch, hammering away with knees, short punches and elbows, though he can strike a bit at range and work from top position, as well. I like Laprise’s technical movement and combination striking, particularly his counters, in this matchup. The pick is Laprise by wide decision.

LIGHTWEIGHTS

Olivier Aubin-Mercier (5-1, 1-1 UFC) vs. David Michaud (8-1, 1-1 UFC): The Canadian theme continues as “The Ultimate Fighter Nations” finalist Aubin-Mercier takes on American Michaud. Aubin-Mercier, a native of Montreal and pupil of Firas Zahabi, has improved rapidly in his brief career. An exceptional athlete and judo black belt, he has powerful trips and throws and excels at finding his opponent’s back in transitions. His striking is also improving, and he throws powerful left straights and kicks from his southpaw stance. Michaud is a solid wrestler himself and throws volume at range as he works his way inside. Given both fighters’ preference for wrestling, there will probably be a lot of work in the clinch, and the Canadian should have an edge there. The pick is Aubin-Mercier by hard-fought decision.

WELTERWEIGHTS

Nordine Taleb (10-2, 2-0 UFC) vs. Chris Clements (12-5, 2-1 UFC): “The Ultimate Fighter Nations” competitor and France native Taleb tries to keep his unbeaten streak in the UFC going against Canada’s Clements. Taleb, a product of Montreal’s Tristar Gym, is a big, strong welterweight who puts his size to best use in the clinch and wrestling exchanges and owns a potent striking game, as well. Clements is an unorthodox and powerful striker who loves spinning techniques but lacks any sort of secondary game. The Frenchman should be able to survive at range and win the fight in the clinch and on the mat, and he also has the power to crack Clements’ chin. The pick is Taleb by knockout in the second round.

WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHTS

Jessica Rakoczy (1-4, 0-1 UFC) vs. Valerie Letourneau (6-3, 1-0 UFC): “The Ultimate Fighter 18” finalist Rakoczy returns to action after a layoff of more than 16 months and draws Letourneau in what will be the UFC strawweight debut for both women. Rakoczy, a former professional boxer, is a striker by preference with a crisp jab and slick combinations, although, as you might expect, the rest of her game is underwhelming. Letourneau is also a striker, though she tends more toward smooth punch-kick combinations, and she can hit the occasional takedown and works well from the top. Rakoczy is just too limited to compete at the UFC level, and the pick is Letourneau by knockout in the first round.

WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHTS

Aisling Daly (15-5, 1-0 UFC) vs. Randa Markos (4-2, 0-1 UFC): Two “Ultimate Fighter” Season 20 contestants open the show in one of the card’s more intriguing matchups. SBG Ireland’s Daly beat Alex Chambers at the finale in December and was scheduled for a fight with Claudia Gadelha before the Brazilian withdrew due to injury. Canada’s Markos upset Tecia Torres and Felice Herrig on the show before falling victim twice, first to Rose Namajunas and then Jessica Penne at the show’s finale. Markos is big, strong and athletic, and she utilizes those advantages with a strong wrestling game that features explosive double-legs and trips from the clinch. She does well in the scrambles and from top position and throws a vicious right hand on the feet, but she lacks polish as a striker. Daly fights with an awkward and offbeat but effective rhythm, constantly switching stances and dropping punching combinations, but she does her best work on the mat with a slick arsenal of submisions. I like the Canadian’s physicality and upside here. The pick is Markos by decision.

Follow Sherdog.com preview expert Patrick Wyman on Twitter.