Preview: UFC on Fox 20 ‘Holm vs. Shevchenko’

Bantamweights

Frankie Saenz (11-3) vs. Eddie Wineland (21-11-1): Three years ago, this might have been a fairly easy fight for Wineland, or at least one which he could be easily expected to win. Wineland’s precise and powerful striking was among the best in the bantamweight division. Now, however, Wineland the contender is almost certainly no more. It has been nearly a year since Wineland’s last fight, and that contest took place over 400 days after his previous fight. Both bouts resulted in losses for Wineland, one a jaw-breaking knockout, the other a decidedly disappointing decision in which the renowned knockout artist struggled to pull the trigger. Saenz may be three years older than Wineland, but he has half the wear and tear and has shown no signs of slowing down yet. Saenz lacks a jab, but he strikes with authority, mixing heavy punches and kicks while riding these power strikes into the clinch. Inside, Saenz is equally comfortable plugging away with knees and elbows or dragging his opponent to the ground with knee taps and trips. Saenz’s style leaves him open defensively, both in terms of striking and wrestling, but he responds well to pressure in either phase. When struck, Saenz comes back hard with combinations of his own. When taken down, he seizes a whizzer, scrambles and often ends up on top. Wineland is no less susceptible to attacks nowadays. The Indiana native opts for a loose guard and relies on mobility and speed to defend himself. In his last fight, however, those traits seemed to be leaving. Without his old quickness, Wineland was outstruck by Bryan Caraway, nobody’s idea of an elite kickboxer, and prevented from countering by his mixed wrestle-boxing attack. Saenz may not be as dangerous as Caraway on the ground, but he is far more dangerous on the feet and employs more offensive variety than Caraway, who made hay with nothing more than a jab and a left hook. Caraway befuddled Wineland’s defenses with a few simple strikes, a persistent takedown attack and the willingness to stand his ground. Saenz is likely to take the same tack, only with greater consequences should one of his strikes connect cleanly. As he showed in his fight with Urijah Faber, Saenz can absorb enough punishment to ensure that Wineland’s already-slim chances of a one-shot knockout will all but vanish entirely. Three years ago, Wineland would have had a field day with Saenz’s loose offense, but three years ago, he would have beaten Caraway, too. Today, the pick is Saenz by second-round TKO.

Welterweights

Alex Oliveira (13-4-1) vs. James Moontasri (9-3): Two opponents with exceptional athletic gifts meet in this matchup, but only one of them has the level of craft necessary to enter the realm of elite MMA. Moontasri is explosive and dangerous, having finished his opponent in seven of his nine pro wins, but he is also lacking strategic awareness. His game is built on the simple element of surprise, with a complement of spinning and flying strikes and a knack for quick submissions in transition. Oliveira is no less athletic and significantly cleverer with his techniques. Oliveira plays an awkward, long-range striking game, countering and leading with equal skill. When his lunging strikes carry him into the clinch, Oliveira is keen to work there, whether with takedowns or short strikes. Like Moontasri, Oliveira’s ground game is more suited to quick scrambles than it is to prolonged battles of position, but he keeps a better work rate in every phase and sets up his attacks in a variety of unpredictable ways. Oliveira gets back on the winning track with a third-round knockout.

Featherweights

Darren Elkins (20-5) vs. Godofredo Castro (12-3): In his fight with Chas Skelly at UFC 196, Elkins reaffirmed one of MMA’s most fundamental truths: He cannot be out-Elkins’d. When Skelly engaged Elkins in his own brand of fast-paced wrestle-boxing, he found himself in a pickle. In the last five years, the only man to submit Elkins has been Charles Oliveira, arguably the most dangerous submission artist in the sport; the only man to knock him out was Chad Mendes, arguably the featherweight division’s hardest puncher. Pepey is a wildly dangerous striker and an aggressive grappler, but he will find himself in Skelly’s same conundrum. As a striker, he is wild and relies on single, powerful blows. On the ground, he willingly plays guard and relies on the same triangle that Elkins has countered so many times before. He is extremely aggressive and has caught many experienced opponents off-guard, but every failed attempt will only put him into a stamina debt he cannot repay. By the end of this bout, Elkins’ face will be bloodied and he will have survived a fair few submission attempts, but he will not have been outdone at his own game. Elkins takes a unanimous decision.

Welterweights

Kamaru Usman (7-1) vs. Alexander Yakovlev (23-6-1): This welterweight battle represents a new-age look at a classic matchup: Call it wrestler-who-can-strike versus striker-who-can-wrestle. After a single uncomfortable attempt at making the lightweight limit, Yakovlev returned to the welterweight division to knock out the notoriously tough George Sullivan in his last fight. The precision striking which created that result makes Yakovlev an interesting test for top prospect Usman, whose grappling has stifled most opponents. So, too, does Yakovlev’s wrestling, which has increasingly become a key component of his game. Usman, however, is no slouch on the feet. Yakovlev will keep his opponent guessing by shooting for reactive takedowns, but Usman will use the threat of his takedowns to launch combinations on the feet while also landing heavy shots in the clinch. The aggression with which Usman throws his strikes can leave him vulnerable, but they will also allow him to compete in Yakovlev’s area of choice long enough to push his wrestling advantage. Yakovlev will need to land a big strike each round to stand a good chance of taking the frame, while a single takedown attempt from Usman will most likely allow him a prolonged period of control and attritive damage. The pick is Usman by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Michel Richard Cunha dos Prazeres (19-2) vs. J.C. Cottrell (17-3): What do you get when you pack the fighting style and mass of Gleison Tibau into a 5-foot-6 frame? Prazeres lacks the surprisingly effective boxing that Tibau developed late into his career, but he is every bit the aggressive grappler and willing to sling leather should the takedown fail to present itself. Like many inexperienced strikers, however, Prazeres is really only comfortable throwing on the counter. Cottrell meets Prazeres in his UFC debut, replacing Tony Martin on just under two weeks’ notice. Though Cottrell has fought everywhere from featherweight to welterweight -- with a super-middleweight boxing match at 168 pounds thrown in for good measure -- he seems well-suited to the lightweight limit. Like Prazeres, Cottrell is a willing striker whose real strength is grappling. Both men specialize in positional control and smooth transitions to the back. That could give him a chance to compete, but more likely it means Cottrell will be forced to meet Prazeres in his area of expertise with less than two weeks of dedicated training at his back. This matchup favors the stronger, more fully trained fighter with more elite experience. The pick is Prazeres by unanimous decision.

Featherweights

Jim Alers (13-2) vs. Jason Knight (13-2): Every bit of Knight’s offense is based on his guard. It is a good guard -- wins by gogoplata and inverted triangle are not born out of a lackluster bottom game -- but Knight is far too willing to fight from the bottom, offering nothing but the threat of submissions. To wit, he accepted every takedown of Tatsuya Kawajiri in his UFC debut, even after spending two face-busting rounds underneath the Japanese vet. Alers may go for a few takedowns of his own, and that will give Knight a chance, but Alers is no slouch on the ground defensively, with a brown belt under respected black belt Bruno Malfacine. On the feet, Alers uses a meat-and-potatoes kickboxing game to get the job done, and he even showed some greatly improved defensive skills in his no-contest bout with Cole Miller in December. Knight could always pull off a miraculous submission, but that is a slim route on which to base one’s entire game. The pick is Alers by unanimous decision.

Heavyweights

Luis Henrique Barbosa de Oliveira (8-2) vs. Dmitry Smoliakov (8-0): There is limited information with which to predict this fight, a quintessentially unpredictable heavyweight affair. Smoliakov enters the UFC with an undefeated record but with no wins of note. Every one of the Russian’s eight victories is a first-round finish, and he has experienced very little adversity. Oliveira, meanwhile, has one fight in the UFC -- a devastating loss to Francis Ngannou. Like Smoliakov, Oliveira’s wins carry very little weight. Where Smoliakov is relatively smooth on the feet, Oliveira is stiff and awkward. He is however a powerful man with some wrestling ability. Oliveira has also gone the distance three times. That speaks to his lack of finishing ability, but it also proves that he can gut through a 15-minute decision. At heavyweight, that is no small feat. Smoliakov will almost certainly sting Oliveira early, but at 22, the Brazilian still possesses the potential to improve; meanwhile, the 33-year-old Smoliakov’s game is likely nearing its full maturation. I will take the fragile youth and grappling credentials of the Brazilian over the untested power of the Russian. The pick is Oliveira by third-round TKO.