UFC 144 Preview: The Main Card

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Welterweights
Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-4, 1-3 UFC) vs. Jake Shields (26-6-1, 1-2 UFC)

The Matchup: Despite three losses in a row, Akiyama’s popularity in Japan makes him tailor-made for this card. The biggest question surrounding “Sexyama” is whether he will bring the cardio issues that plagued him at middleweight to 170 pounds. It was the right move to make for the ethnic Korean, who was too small to be consistently competitive in the UFC’s middleweight division.

Shields saw a 15-fight unbeaten string come to an end in 2011. First, Georges St. Pierre used his jab to create distance and keep the former Strikeforce champion at bay to retain his title in a five-round decision. Then, Jake Ellenberger became the first person to finish Shields with strikes in more than a decade at UFC Fight Night 25.

Fortunately for Shields, a Cesar Gracie protégé, Akiyama lacks the precision of a St. Pierre and the raw power of an Ellenberger. Akiyama is a capable counterpuncher when his opponents get inside his range, and he is remarkably fluid in transitioning from one technique to another. Despite moderate standup skills, the judo black belt has been willing to stand and trade all too often during his UFC tenure. In losses to Michael Bisping and Chris Leben, Akiyama’s arsenal of throws, sweeps and trips remained largely dormant.

Perhaps as he grows more confident in his new weight class, Akiyama will return to his bread and butter, though a ground battle against Shields is a risky proposition. The Californian is smart enough not to overvalue his marginal standup; his punches are merely a setup for his highly effective single-leg takedown. If Akiyama whiffs on a punch, Shields can quickly capitalize.

Shields is very efficient on the mat, looking to improve position when his opponent attacks. At his best, Shields is a master of positioning, and he will continue to work until he gets where he wants to be.

The Pick: Despite losing to top-notch competition, Akiyama needs a good performance to remain in the UFC. Few fighters can survive four straight losses, so expect a spirited effort. Shields’ job is somewhat safer, and he can be more conservative in his approach. Akiyama’s striking is not enough to deter Shields, who will utilize dominant top control to take a decision.

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