Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Teixeira vs. St. Preux’

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Heavyweights

Jared Rosholt (12-2, 4-1 UFC) vs. Timothy Johnson (9-1, 1-0 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Mid-tier heavyweights collide, with the winner looking like a solid bet to crack the top 10 in a thin and aging division. Both are spring chickens by the standards of the weight class, with Johnson clocking in at 30 and Rosholt at only 28. Johnson debuted with a first-round knockout win over Shamil Abdurakhimov, while Rosholt rebounded from his only UFC loss with a finish of Josh Copeland in April.

Johnson is a true heavyweight with great size and strength. He is a sound if limited striker who slips his head offline as he moves forward aggressively behind consistent straight left-right hook combinations from the southpaw stance. Those combinations serve to bring Johnson forward into his wheelhouse: the clinch. He is perfectly willing to grind away with knees and short punches against the fence but also has an arsenal of trips and throws, and he has a knack for landing hard punches on clinch breaks. When the fight hits the ground, Johnson packs real power in his ground strikes along with a basic repertoire of passes and topside submissions.

Rosholt was a three-time NCAA All-American at Oklahoma State University, and wrestling is still the basis of his MMA game. Once locked up with his opponent, Rosholt is relentless. He chains together singles, doubles, knee taps and trips into seamless sequences of takedowns. On the ground, he is no less inclined to give his opponent space, constantly moving between rides, front headlocks and more traditional top control. If Rosholt cannot get his opponent to the mat, he is happy to grind away in the clinch with knees and takedown attempts. The problem is his range striking. He is willing to engage and has some pop, but he does not throw many combinations and is not a defensive mastermind. More worrisome is the fact that he does not excel at setting up his entries with strikes, which means he often shoots from too far away.

BETTING ODDS: Rosholt (-215), Johnson (+185)

THE PICK: Johnson is a solid fighter, but I think he will be too willing to engage Rosholt in areas where the former Oklahoma State wrestler has a substantial advantage. Unless Johnson somehow transforms himself into a stick-and-move striker, he will end up in the clinch and wrestling exchanges, and that is where Rosholt excels. The pick is Rosholt by decision.

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