Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Rodriguez vs. Caceres’

Welterweights

Santiago Ponzinibbio (22-3) vs. Zak Cummings (19-4)

THE MATCHUP: Expectations may have been low for Cummings after he lost to Dylan Andrews on the 19th season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” but he has more than exceeded them since. Not only has Cummings used the same submission wrestling approach that got him onto the show in the first place, but he has developed a potent striking arsenal to back it up.

A physically imposing fighter, Cummings is at his best as an aggressive counterpuncher. He applies pressure with his footwork and feints and forces his opponents to punch their way off the fence, at which point he subtly slips or blocks -- he eats a shot if necessary -- and responds with a counter. Though he has more submissions than knockouts on his record, Cummings is undeniably heavy-handed, and his tight, economical combinations make him extremely dangerous in close quarters.

That makes Cummings an interesting matchup for Ponzinibbio, who is more of a classic pressure fighter. Ponzinibbio prefers to keep his opponent backed into the fence at all times and throws about twice as many strikes as Cummings. Aside from the pawing jabs he uses to corral his opponent and find his range, nearly everything Ponzinibbio throws is at full power, whether leg kicks or sledgehammer right hands.

Defensively, however, Ponzinibbio suffers for his aggression. He was knocked out by Lorenz Larkin, not because Larkin was immune to his pressure but because he reacted to it with powerful offense of his own. Ponzinibbio’s preferred range simply makes him more susceptible to counters, should his opponent choose to throw them. This applies to takedowns, as well, and wrestlers have succeeded in flooring Ponzinibbio with takedowns when he plants his feet to throw. He mitigates this risk with an explosive scramble-and-escape approach to the ground game, but Cummings may find some opportunities should he choose to shoot or tie up Ponzinibbio in the clinch, where he has historically been quite effective.

THE ODDS: Ponzinibbio (-177), Cummings (+152)

THE PICK: Swarmer versus counterpuncher is always an enticing matchup, and Cummings and Ponzinibbio offer enough interesting wrinkles to make the dynamic even more exciting in this fight. Cummings’ defense and counterpunching, combined with his powerful clinch game, should ultimately prove effective against Ponzinibbio’s forward movement, however. Whether Cummings backs down Ponzinibbio and forces him to slow his pace or hurts him badly enough to get a finish, he has the stylistic edge in this matchup. Thus, the pick is Cummings by third-round TKO.

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