Preview: UFC 200 ‘Lesnar vs. Hunt’

Heavyweights

Cain Velasquez (13-2) vs. Travis Browne (18-3-1)

THE MATCHUP: What a glorious event. Former heavyweight champion Velasquez opens up the main card, and it has not even been 20 months since his last fight.

Once touted as the next Fedor Emelianenko, Velasquez’s career prospects are in serious doubt following a string of debilitating injuries and a crushing defeat at the hands of Fabricio Werdum. Watching Velasquez from one fight to the next, it is clear that his rigorous training habits are starting to catch up to him, but Browne is a clear step below men like Werdum and Junior dos Santos. This is essentially Velasquez’s chance to reassert himself as a heavyweight contender.

Browne was an awkward and unorthodox fighter under Greg Jackson and Mike Winkeljohn, relying on his athleticism to overwhelm opponents with sudden flashes of violence. Now training alongside fiancée Ronda Rousey at the much-maligned Glendale Fighting Club, Browne has sharpened up his offensive boxing while still struggling to cope with the aggression of his smaller opponents.

Velasquez’s aggression and the stamina which enables it are unmatched in the heavyweight division, though one has to wonder how injuries and time will affect those traits going forward. Velasquez is also a capable defensive fighter, more suited to navigate the dangerous reach of Browne’s arms in order to close the distance. Once inside, Velasquez is unlikely to dive on a double-leg and fall prey to the elbows with which Browne dispatched Josh Barnett and Gabriel Gonzaga. Rather, Velasquez will look to work in the clinch, using underhooks and head pressure to wear down Browne and drag him to the mat once he tires.

On the ground, Velasquez is undeniably the more seasoned fighter. Browne can do damage from top position, and his size and strength make him particularly dangerous from that position. On the bottom, however, he is concerned only with escaping to his feet. Velasquez excels at punishing opponents in these moments, allowing them to move, only to transition from one position to the next while raining down punishing ground-and-pound.

THE ODDS: Velasquez (-290), Browne (+240)

THE PICK: Never before have Browne’s chances of beating Velasquez been better. He remains an awkward fighter with suspect defense, but his power and size will give him some distinct windows of opportunity against Velasquez, who stands at least six inches shorter than “Hapa.” Nonetheless, Velasquez’s aggression and pace are the kryptonite to Browne’s rangy style, even if those attributes are not what once they were. Browne’s athleticism is vaunted, but he has never shown the ability to reserve his energy in a fast-paced fight. He may not move like a heavyweight, but one or two rounds of that movement reveal him to be just as susceptible to gravity as the rest of his ilk. The pick is Velasquez by third-round TKO.

Last Fights » The Prelims