Preview: UFC 203 ‘Miocic vs. Overeem’

Welterweights

Phil Brooks (0-0) vs. Mickey Gall (2-0)

THE MATCHUP: Brooks, aka “CM Punk” got into the UFC the same way Brock Lesnar did -- on the back of a dedicated pro wrestling fanbase. Unlike Lesnar, Punk has no wrestling background to support his training efforts and only a few years of Gracie jiu-jitsu training; and unlike Lesnar, Punk has the misfortune of fighting at welterweight, one of MMA’s deepest divisions. Simple traits like durability and power matter a lot more at heavyweight, where the opponents are slower and more predictable. At 170 pounds, even the bottom-rung fighters are fairly fast and athletic, which makes the division far less forgiving for an MMA novice.

Gall is a fairly forgiving fight for Punk’s debut, but he is still an MMA native and a promising if largely unproven prospect. Gall is an aggressive striker, willing to take a shot to give one, and an opportunistic finisher. His game is well-tailored to modern MMA: a little bit of pressure, a few hard punches and a quick back take to set up the choke finish.

It is impossible to tell how well-prepared Punk will be for this fight, but the basic facts are these: He has no experience in pro MMA, and no amount of training can truly prepare a novice fighter to compete under the bright lights before thousands of screaming fans. Punk is 37 and Gall only 24.

THE ODDS: Gall (-435), Brooks (+350)

THE PICK: Punk could surprise us, but the chances are slim. Gall is well-positioned to make rapid improvements from one fight to the next, while Punk has absolutely no idea what a fight feels like. What training footage does exist suggests that he is still uncomfortable exchanging punches and seems susceptible to pressure both on the feet and on the ground. Gall’s recklessness could be a liability down the line, but against an untested novice, there are few things more effective than raw aggression. The pick is Gall by first-round TKO.

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