Preview: UFC on Fox 16 ‘Dillashaw vs. Barao 2’

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Women’s Bantamweights

Miesha Tate (16-5, 3-2 UFC) vs. Jessica Eye (11-2, 1-1 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Former title challenger Tate needs to clear one final hurdle to secure a third fight with champion Ronda Rousey, and she finds a substantial roadblock in the form of Ohio’s Eye. Since her last loss to Rousey, Tate has run off three consecutive wins, taking decisions over Liz Carmouche, Rin Nakai and Sara McMann. Eye defeated Leslie Smith in November, and prior to that, lost a contentious decision to Alexis Davis. The winner will almost certainly get the next shot at Rousey, one of the highest-profile and most marketable fighters in the sport, which makes the stakes here astronomical.

While she is not a great athlete and has never really developed as a striker, Tate is durable, game and utterly relentless. Her work on the feet is functional at best and a handicap at worst, with an occasional jab and a willingness to exchange in the pocket that has gotten her in trouble in the past. She is seriously hittable and is forced to rely far too much on her toughness. The real meat of Tate’s game lies in the wrestling and grappling. She is more of a grinder than an authoritative finisher of takedowns, chaining together singles, doubles and trips until she eventually forces her opponent to the mat. Once there, she passes smoothly, maintains good control and can finish from the top with an array of submissions.

Eye is a striker by trade and a solid one. High-output, relatively low-power boxing is the core of her game. She works a sharp, constant jab that serves to set the distance and keep her opponents on the outside. Her right cross often accompanies the jab, and while it is not a terribly powerful punch, she mixes up the locations and the rhythm enough to make it a worthwhile staple. Eye could probably stand to throw her left hook more often, and the occasional low or middle kick adds some variety. Control of the range, sheer volume and crisp pivots make it difficult to get close to her, but she is an effective in-fighter with nice knees, uppercuts and good use of the collar tie. Takedown defense is a must for someone with her skills, and Eye is reasonably solid if not outstanding. She has little to offer on the mat, aside from the ability to tie up and force a standup.

THE PICK: Eye’s takedown defense is not good enough to repeatedly stuff Tate if the skilled chain wrestler gets in on her hips, which means she has to use her jab to control the range and keep “Cupcake” away for most of the fight. That simply does not seem like a viable plan. I expect Tate to eat a bunch of shots, walk through them and then repeatedly take down Eye and control her from the top. The pick is Tate by decision.

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