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Welterweights

Rafael dos Anjos (26-9) vs. Neil Magny (19-5)

THE MATCHUP: This is lovely morsel courtesy of matchmaker Sean Shelby, an expansion of sorts on his thought process with dos Anjos’ UFC welterweight debut against Tarec Saffiedine -- a welterweight with legitimate size who has rangy striking skills that could give a career-long lightweight problems. Make no mistake, there is no shame in losing to Eddie Alvarez, who is certainly one of the 10 best lightweights ever, nor Tony Ferguson, who might be one of the 10 best fighters in the sport right now. However, dos Anjos looked increasingly desperate on the scales after every weight cut to 155 pounds and was noticeably more lethargic than usual during the Ferguson loss in Mexico City. It was definitely the right time for the former lightweight kingpin to make the jump to 170 pounds, and in the Saffiedine bout, he looked reinvigorated and healthy.

Dos Anjos looked to use his powerful low kicks early against Saffiedine. When the Belgian began timing his kicks, caught one and took him down, dos Anjos changed tack, established his jab, pressed his way into the clinch and pounded the bigger man to the body for the rest of the fight. If the point of that fight was to establish whether dos Anjos could implement his trademark power-and-pressure game against bigger men, the Magny bout is an amplification of that dynamic. At 6-foot-3, Magny will enjoy a seven-inch height and 10-inch reach advantage over dos Anjos, and more importantly, he is adept at using that size. He is an outstanding jabber going forward or backward, throwing it in multiples, on the attack and on the counter. He has also had great success dealing with southpaws during his UFC tenure, going 4-1 against lefties in the Octagon. His wrestling is not flawless, but as he showed in his win over Johny Hendricks, Magny can stymie a man from his guard with activity and actually win rounds on the scorecards that way, this in addition to being a very strong scrambler.

However, dos Anjos is far more dedicated to top pressure and pounding than the modern incarnation of Hendricks, who looks positively burned out. If Magny winds up on his back, stacked up against the fence beneath the Brazilian, he is going to be subject to a much steadier diet of smothering, pummeling, posturing, punching and elbowing than the “Bigg Rigg” could offer. A phone-booth fight only allows dos Anjos the freedom to thump Magny’s even taller torso the way he did to Saffiedine. From the bout’s outset, Magny absolutely must use his jab to keep dos Anjos from hacking into his skinny legs or rushing into close range with punching volleys. The Elevation Fight Team member is incredibly tough and resilient -- recall the Hector Lombard comeback or his 25-minute win over Kelvin Gastelum -- but dos Anjos is like a snowball going downhill when he can do early damage and then dictate the pace of a fight. That is how he destroyed Anthony Pettis and his orbital bone for the 155-pound crown.

THE ODDS: Dos Anjos (-160), Magny (+130)

THE PICK: Magny has a clear path to victory. Whether he can quiet dos Anjos’ precise, potent brand of pressure is another story. “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 16 semifinalist has shown off incredible improvements throughout his five-year UFC run, but he has a penchant for backing up onto the fence, which may be all the extra help an already-capable dos Anjos needs. Magny’s jab and defensive wrestling may give dos Anjos some problems and make the bout competitive, but dos Anjos’ tight, sharp standup should allow him to land clean and hard, seducing Magny into allowing him to work his game along the fence. Dos Anjos wins by competitive decision.

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